Downstream: How To Predict the Future w/ Peter Turchin

Downstream: How To Predict the Future w/ Peter Turchin

Author: Novara Media June 19, 2023 Duration: 1:28:28

History is not just one thing after another. Historians spend lifetimes figuring out how X event in medieval France impacted Y event in 20th century Polynesia, but none of them have truly ‘done the math’ like this week’s guest.

Coming from a background in applied mathematics, Peter Turchin has gathered an unprecedented amount of historical data that he believes gives him a better chance than most of predicting how societies slide into grave crises. He’s been proven right too: in the early 2010s, he predicted that 2020 would see a global rise in instability. Aaron Bastani finds out how he did it.

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration is available from Penguin.


Tune in to Novara Media for a distinct and probing take on the world as it is, and as it could be. This independent podcast offers a necessary space for the conversations often sidelined elsewhere, weaving together sharp analysis of current affairs with deeper explorations of culture, philosophy and power. Each episode naturally delves into the interconnected crises shaping our time-be it the fraying edges of our economic system, the urgent fight for climate justice, or the enduring struggles against structural inequality. The discussions are built on a foundation of radical thought and a commitment to imagining alternatives, moving beyond the day's headlines to examine the root causes and potential futures. Hosted by the team at Novara Media, the audio format brings a direct, engaging and often challenging perspective, featuring interviews, panel debates and solo commentaries that refuse simplistic answers. It’s for anyone who finds mainstream narratives insufficient and is looking for a podcast that treats politics, society and culture as the complex, urgent and deeply human matters they truly are.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 306

Novara Media
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