Is 2026 the year Australia's housing market splits in two?
We've had another interest rate rise. There's talk of tax reform. Global political instability is back on the radar. And yet, in some cities, entry-level property prices are still surging at double-digit rates.
So what's really going on?
Are we heading for a slowdown… or are supply shortages and strong demand about to push prices higher again?
Today I'm joined by Dr Nicola Powell, Chief of Research & Economics for Domain, and while we'll unpack their latest First Home Buyer Report, this conversation goes much further than that.
Because what's happening to first home buyers is a leading indicator.
It tells us where demand is building, where pressure is intensifying, which cities are reshuffling their affordability rankings, and where mortgage stress is becoming structural rather than cyclical.
We're also going to talk about what's ahead for our property markets this year in light of interest rate and tax changes.
Takeaways
· Domain's First Home Buyer Report examines future housing market trends in Australia.
· The report shows rising entry-level prices in Brisbane and Perth.
· Saving for deposits is harder as prices outpace wages, notably in Sydney and Brisbane.
· Mortgage stress is increasing across capitals, affecting houses and units.
· The rental market is tight, with modest rent growth expected.
· Policy reforms should focus on supply, with faster approvals and smarter zoning.
· Changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing need a balanced approach.
· Modest price growth is expected, driven by population and migration.
· Victoria is a fast-growing area with high housing demand.
· No housing market crash is expected; markets remain fragmented.
Links and Resources:
Answer this week's trivia question here - https://www.propertytrivia.com.au/
· Win a hard copy of How To Grow A Multi-Million Dollar Property Portfolio In Your Spare Time. Everyone wins a copy of a fully updated property report.
· Everyone wins a copy of a fully updated property report
Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at: www.PodcastBonus.com.au
Get the team at Metropole to create a Strategic Property Plan for your needs. Click here and have a chat with us.
Michael Yardney Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here
Dr Nicola Powell - Chief of Research & Economics for Domain: https://www.domain.com.au/news/author/dr-nicola-powell/
Domain's First Home Buyers Report: https://propertyupdate.com.au/australias-first-home-buyers-are-facing-a-new-reality-and-its-not-just-about-interest-rates-anymore/
Join Michael Yardney, plus a team of experts, at Wealth Retreat 2026 on the Gold Coast in May. Find out more about it here and register your interest www.wealthretreat.com.au. It's Australia's premier event for successful investors and business people.
Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.
About The Michael Yardney Podcast | Property Investment And Wealth Creation Australia
The Michael Yardney Podcast is one of Australia's leading property investment podcasts, helping investors understand the Australian property market and build long-term wealth through strategic property investing.
Each week we explore:
• Australian property market updates
• Property investment strategies in Australia
• Melbourne property market trends
• Sydney property market forecasts
• Brisbane property investment opportunities
• Capital growth property strategies
• Property cycles in Australia
• Negative gearing and tax strategy
• Interest rates and their impact on property
• Buyer's agent insights and investment planning
If you're serious about building a high-performance property portfolio and creating financial freedom through real estate, this podcast will give you the clarity and strategy you need.
Learn more at:
https://propertyupdate.com.au
https://metropole.com.au
