The market is on an absolute tear right now, and it’s raising some serious questions. Lucky for you, Mike and Emmet want to upack them all.
Despite the crazy macroeconomic conditions, the market keeps performing. The Nasdaq Composite is up roughly 38% in the last year. And when you zoom in on individual stocks, things get even crazier.
SanDisk (SNDK) is up 63% in a month, 450% in six months, and an eye-watering 3,800% over the last 12 months. Micron (MU) has jumped 86% in a month and nearly 8x in a year, while Western Digital (WDC) is up around 1,000% over the same period. Even lesser-known names like AXT (AXTI) are suddenly flying, up roughly 700% year-to-date.
In fact, the top 10 stocks over the past 12 months have outperformed the top performers in the 12 month run-up to the dot-com bubble – a stat that’s hard to ignore.
So… are we in an AI bubble?
Skeptics like Michael Burry argue this rally looks even more extreme than 1999. And to be fair, many of the classic bubble ingredients are there: stretched valuations, momentum chasing, and heavy concentration in a single theme.
But there’s a strong counterargument too.
We’ve just come through a blockbuster earnings season, with the median earnings surprise hitting 6% – the best since 2022. AI demand isn’t just hype; companies are struggling to keep up. Hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL) are pouring hundreds of billions into infrastructure, signaling that this could be a real productivity revolution.Still, that level of spending raises some eyebrows.
And while AI stocks dominate headlines, there’s another side to this market.
Plenty of high-quality businesses are being left behind, with money rotating aggressively into AI. Stocks like McDonald's (MCD), Home Depot (HD), Mercado Libre (MELI), Lululemon (LULU), and Accenture (ACN) are sitting near 52-week lows – along with a host of medical leaders like Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Medtronic (MDT), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). These are durable, proven businesses – but right now, if you’re not AI, you’re being ignored. So five years from now, would you rather own today’s high-flying AI names or these overlooked compounders trading at a discount?
And finally, we dive into one of the wildest stories in the market right now: GameStop (GME) reportedly exploring a deal to acquire eBay (EBAY). GameStop is worth about $12 billion and to pull off the deal it could end up needing as much as $65 billion. Meaning, it would likely need to issue a massive amount of new shares and take on tens of billions in debt, raising serious questions about dilution and feasibility.
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00:00 Intro02:22 Nasdaq Surge Bubble Talk05:18 Semiconductor Mania Stats16:21 C3 AI as Bubble Counterpoint21:43 Undervalued Stocks and Market Rotation24:38 GameStop Bids for eBay35:47 Following Prophet
