Ahead of its highly anticipated IPO, SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, numbers that would make it one of the largest public companies in the world from day one. This week, Mike and Emmet ask: does the business justify the hype?
In 2025, revenue reached $18.7 billion, up 33% year over year. But the company also posted a net loss of roughly $5 billion, including a staggering $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
While SpaceX's established businesses, Starlink and Launch Services, continue to expand, the division attracting the most scrutiny is xAI.
Despite contributing just 17% of revenue, xAI generated billions in losses as Elon Musk pours money into competing with the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic. The company has burned through billions on AI infrastructure, but investors are betting today's losses could become tomorrow's dominance.
There are also concerns around governance, float, and a potential merger. Musk controls roughly 85% of the company's voting power, giving him near-total control over board appointments, executive pay, and strategic decisions. Meanwhile, only a small percentage of shares will initially be available to trade, creating the potential for significant volatility once the stock hits public markets. Rumors are also swirling that SpaceX and Tesla could eventually combine forces, creating one of the most ambitious corporate structures in history.Ultimately, investors are being asked to pay a premium today for technologies that may not fully arrive for years—or even decades.
Only time will tell whether SpaceX becomes the company that powers interplanetary travel, AI infrastructure, and space-based energy systems. If it does, today's valuation may end up looking cheap. If not, this could go down as one of the most ambitious IPOs ever brought to market.
We wrap up with another episode of Follow Prophet.
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00:00 Intro03:36 SpaceX IPO Preview07:24 Valuation14:20 Governance And Control Risks21:05 Tesla SpaceX Merger Talk30:00 IPO Timing Buy Or Wait40:23 Follow Prophet
