Fed Pivot Watch: March FOMC Meeting, Inflation Data, and Cross-Asset Repricing

Markets are positioning for critical asset repricing ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. This episode dissects the institutional divergence on rate cut timing, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expecting June while Citi and Wells Fargo project March. We analyze January CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, upcoming PCE data on March 13, and how 96% hold probability is baked into Fed funds futures. Deep dive into cross-asset implications: Treasury yield curve dynamics with Goldman's 3.25% terminal rate projection, growth versus value rotation in equities, crypto volatility amplified by leverage, and USD strength scenarios. Coverage includes employment data showing 60,000 to 67,000 monthly job additions, unemployment hovering at 4.3% to 4.4%, and three distinct risk scenarios-base case, hawkish surprise, and dovish pivot-with specific trading implications for bonds, equities, and digital assets.