Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge as Iran Tensions Drive Oil to One Hundred Fifteen Dollars

Markets are repricing Federal Reserve policy expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes as Middle East geopolitical tensions push Brent crude to one hundred fifteen dollars per barrel and inflation fears intensify. Bitcoin trades near sixty-seven thousand eight hundred fifty-eight dollars amid institutional outflows and compressed valuations. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw two hundred ninety-six million dollars in net outflows, ending a four-week inflow streak, while Ethereum funds bled over two hundred million dollars. The probability of Fed rate hikes by year-end has jumped to nearly thirty percent as ten-year Treasury yields hit four point four percent. With recession odds approaching forty percent and markets pricing out rate cuts until late twenty twenty-seven, risk assets face mounting macro headwinds from energy-driven inflation and tightening financial conditions.