Carry, Calendar Spreads, and Climate: Bruce Sinclair on the Future of Grain Markets

Carry, Calendar Spreads, and Climate: Bruce Sinclair on the Future of Grain Markets

Author: RCM Alternatives February 26, 2026 Duration: 54:56

In this episode of The Derivative, host Jeff Malec talks with South African grain spread trader Bruce Sinclair (Brent Trading) about how he went from a farming background to running a spread-focused commodities program trading Chicago grains from a remote game farm in South Africa. Bruce explains, in plain language, how carry and calendar spreads work, why he believes spreads offer a more manageable risk profile than outright futures, and how he enforces a hard 10% annual drawdown limit for investors. They dig into the realities of global grain markets with Brazil, Argentina, China, and geopolitics in the mix, why commodities aren’t the clean inflation hedge many think they are, and how climate and structural changes are reshaping seasonality. Bruce also shares stories from his off-grid life breeding rhinos and rare game, navigating South African politics and crime, and why he thinks 2026 could bring much more volatility to grain markets than 2025… SEND IT!


Chapters:

00:00-00:01:01= Intro

01:02-12:34= From South African Farms to Grain Spreads: How Bruce Built His Ag Trading Edge

12:35-24:22 = Carry Trades, Calendar Spreads, and Risk Rules: Inside Bruce’s Grain Strategy

24:23-33:15= Commodities, Inflation Myths, and the Soybean–Oil–Meal Puzzle

33:16-46:03= Politics, Perception, and Life Off-Grid: Running a Trading Firm from Rural South Africa

46:04-54:53= Weather, Brazil, and the Limits of Data: Why Bruce Still Trusts Spreads


Follow along with Bruce on LinkedIn and be sure to check out Brent Trading's website: brent.za.net!


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For investors looking beyond the traditional stock and bond markets, The Derivative offers a deep and practical exploration of the alternative investment landscape. Hosted by RCM Managing Partner Jeff Malec, this podcast demystifies complex strategies and brings listeners directly into conversations with the hedge fund managers and specialized investors who navigate these unique asset classes. Each episode breaks down the mechanics, risks, and opportunities behind non-traditional investments, from managed futures and private equity to niche market strategies. The discussions are grounded in real-world analysis, moving beyond theory to examine what actually drives performance and strategy in this dynamic corner of finance. By focusing on the people and ideas shaping the field, The Derivative provides an insider's perspective that is both educational and actionable. Listeners gain a clearer understanding of portfolio diversification and the tactical approaches used by professional fund managers. This podcast serves as a valuable resource for anyone seeking to comprehend the broader, often opaque world of alternatives, delivered through straightforward dialogue and expert commentary. Tune in for a focused and insightful ride through the strategies that define alternative investing.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

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