In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with Dr. Patrick Welton to trace his remarkable path from Wisconsin kid to Stanford oncologist to veteran futures trader and founder of Welton Investment Partners. Patrick shares how trading pork bellies and interest rate futures in the late 1970s to pay tuition evolved into a decades-long career shaped by mentors at Commodities Corp, relationships with legends like Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry, and a unique “outside inside trader” role that let him keep practicing medicine at Stanford while managing money. He explains how his medical background and scientific training influence his approach to risk, uncertainty, and decision-making, and breaks down Welton’s strategy mix across trend following, macro, short-term flow trading, and equity selloff protection. Along the way, Patrick and Jeff dig into the myths around trend following “dying,” why diversification and staying power matter more than narratives, how capital flows really drive short-term moves, and what it takes to survive for 30+ years in a business where most firms disappear. SEND IT!
Chapters:
00:00-02:03=Intro
02:04-09:40=Doctor to Trader: Patrick Welton’s Origin Story, From Wauwatosa to Futures and the ER
09:41-30:03= From 1987 Crash to Commodities Corp: How Patrick and Annette Turned a Side Hustle into a Trading Career
30:04-43:19= Doctors, Scientists, and Traders: Embracing Uncertainty, Reflexivity, and the Real Drivers of Trend Following
43:20-56:16= AI, Innovation, and the “CTA Winter”: Cycles, Flows, and the Future of Trend Following
56:17-01:14:19= Building Welton’s Playbook: Diversifying Alpha, Short-Term Flows, and the Art of Surviving as an Asset Manager
01:14:20-01:29:48= Alt Data, Capital Flows, and What Really Matters: Patrick Welton on Research, Edges, and the Future of Trading
01:29:49-01:37:47= End-of-Month Myths, Market Microstructure, and the Limits of Short-Term Edges
From the Episode:
Leverage Is Bad. Except When It Isn’t. Morningstar Just Made the Distinction Official
Book: Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life
Book: Market Wizards, Updated: Interviews with Top Traders
Jack Schwager on The Derivative
Follow along with Dr. Welton and Welton Investment Partners on LinkedIn and be sure to check out Welton's website at welton.com for more information!
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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visitwww.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
