Ep. 19 - Is China's Growth Story Over? Ft. Michael Pettis of Peking University

Ep. 19 - Is China's Growth Story Over? Ft. Michael Pettis of Peking University

Author: Anirudh Suri August 29, 2024 Duration: 1:10:51

Is China's Growth Story Over? Ft. Michael Pettis of Peking University

In this episode of the Great Tech Game podcast, Anirudh Suri welcomes Professor Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. The discussion spans topics such as the structural issues in the Chinese economy, global economic imbalances, and the evolution of trade policies.

Pettis explains the historical context of economic development, the pitfalls of high savings and investment models, and the necessity of transitioning to a higher consumption model. He argues that China's current economic malaise stems from structural issues rather than political missteps by Xi Jinping.

They also delve into the implications of decoupling efforts, the emergence of a new international economic order, and the lessons developing countries like India and Vietnam can learn. Pettis emphasizes the need for balanced trade and cautions against unregulated capital flows, advocating for a restructured global trade system to address imbalances.



02:01 Introducing Professor Michael Pettis

02:21 Michael Pettis' Background and Achievements

03:41 Reflections on Two Decades in China

07:50 Economic Worldview and Key Theories

10:57 Impact of Global Imbalances

20:23 Case Study: U.S. and China Economic Dynamics

30:37 Historical Paths to Economic Development

36:02 Current State of the Chinese Economy

38:25 Challenges of Economic Transition

39:35 China's Investment Dilemma

40:24 Consumption vs. Investment

41:53 Global Trade and Economic Models

42:49 Debate on Xi Jinping's Policies

45:57 Impact of Decoupling on China

52:07 Future of Global Economic Order

57:30 Advice for Developing Countries

01:02:06 Industrial Policy and Global Trade

01:09:15 Conclusion and Recommendations

Book Links:

Anirudh Suri:The Great Tech Game by Anirudh Suri : https://amzn.eu/d/1Su38My

Michael Pettis:

TRADE WARS ARE CLASS WARS: https://amzn.in/d/0tktJII

Avoiding the Fall: China's Economic Restructuring: https://amzn.in/d/dNkY6aM

The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy : https://amzn.in/d/0jJEI06

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Anirudh Suri sits at a unique crossroads, drawing from his experience as a tech venture capitalist and policy advisor to frame some of today's most pressing questions. In The Great Tech Game Podcast: Geopolitics, Technology, Business and Global Affairs, with Anirudh Suri, he moves beyond surface-level news to explore how technological shifts are actively redrawing the lines of global power and economic opportunity. Each episode is built around a conversation with a carefully selected thinker, from entrepreneurs and investors to strategists and scholars, who can unpack the real-world implications of these converging forces. You'll hear specific discussions on how supply chains are being reshaped by policy, what the race for semiconductors means for national security, and how business strategies must adapt in a fragmenting digital world. The dialogue is grounded in Anirudh's perspective as the author of *The Great Tech Game*, ensuring a consistent, insightful thread through diverse topics. This isn't about abstract theory; it's about understanding the tangible game board where technology decisions collide with geopolitical realities. Tuning into this podcast provides a clearer lens on the forces shaping your industry, investments, and the broader global landscape, offering depth and context that daily headlines often miss.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

The Great Tech Game Podcast: Geopolitics, Technology, Business and Global Affairs, with Anirudh Suri
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