Winning the Lottery Could Ruin Your Life

What would it take to make you happier? A raise? A promotion? Getting into your dream school? Winning the lottery? It turns out that we’re surprisingly bad at predicting how these events will actually make us feel. When they do make us happier, research shows that the highs won’t last as long as we expect. The good news is that the lows won't last as long as we expect either. We're just as bad at predicting how life's setbacks will affect us.

Dr. Laurie speaks with Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert about why our minds exaggerate the emotional impact of life’s biggest events. She also hears from psychotherapist Clay Cockrell about why extreme wealth often comes with misery, and from writer Rafaella Gunz and Army veteran J.R. Martinez about their journeys toward happiness and meaning after experiences they once thought would ruin their lives.

Experts Mentioned:

• Daniel Gilbert, Professor of Psychology at Harvard University
• Clay Cockrell, Licensed Clinical Social Worker and Psychotherapist 
• Daniel Kahneman, Professor of Psychology, Emeritus, and Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Emeritus at Princeton University
• Angus Deaton, Professor of International Affairs, Emeritus, and Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Emeritus at Princeton University
• Matthew Killingsworth, Senior Fellow at The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
• Rafaella Gunz, writer and social worker 
• J.R. Martinez, Army veteran, actor, author, and podcast host

Resources Mentioned:

• “Billie Bob’s (Mis) Fortune,” by Steve McViker (Houston Press, 2000)
• “The How of Happiness: A New Approach to Getting the Life You Want,” by Sonja Lyubomirsky (2007)
• “High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being,” by Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010)
• “Experienced well-being rises with income, even above $75,000 per year,” by Matthew Killingsworth (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2023)
• “Income and emotional well-being: a conflict resolved,” by Matthew Killingsworth, Daniel Kahneman, and Barbara Mellers (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2023)
• Stumbling on Happiness, by Daniel Gilbert (2006)
• “Immune neglect: a source of durability bias in affective forecasting,” by Daniel Gilbert, Elizabeth Pinel, Timothy Wilson, Stephen Blumberg, and Thalia Wheatley (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1998)
• “Affective forecasting: Why can't people predict their emotions?,” by Peter Ayton, Alice Pott, and Najat Elwakili (Thinking & Reasoning, 2007)
• “Anticipated versus actual reaction to HIV test results,” by Elaine Sieff, Robyn Dawes, and George Lowenstein (The American Journal of Psychology, 1999)
• Well-Being: Foundations of Hedonic Psychology, by Daniel Kahneman, Edward Diener, and Norbert Schwartz (1999)
• “Getting Herpes Was a Gift,” by Rafaella Gunz (Ravishly, 2016)
• “The impact bias is alive and well,” by Timothy Wilson and Daniel Gilbert (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2013)
• Full of Heart: My Story of Survival, Strength, and Spirit, by J.R. Martinez with Alexandra Rockey Fleming (2012)

Related Episodes:

• “Why We Sabotage Our Future Selves” 
• “Why the ‘Good Enough’ Relationship Beats the ‘Perfect Partner’”
• “Working Your Way to Happiness” 
• “Why Nostalgia Ain’t So Rosy”

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