Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?

Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?

Author: Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly May 16, 2025 Duration: 22:42
Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget deficits by about $500bn per year for the next decade. Will the market give another free pass to US deficits, or will the bond/USD vigilantes show up this time?

Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly bring the high-stakes energy of a dealing room straight to your headphones with The Macro Trading Floor. This isn't a dry lecture on economic theory; it's a dynamic conversation where complex global themes-from central bank decisions and inflation trends to geopolitical shifts and technological disruptions-are translated into clear market language. You'll hear their unfiltered analysis and genuine back-and-forth, which often leads to specific, actionable ideas for navigating currencies, bonds, and equities. The discussion naturally spans business, investing, and news, reflecting the hosts' own trading-floor mentality where all information is connected. Tune in for a blend of seasoned perspective and lively debate that makes understanding the forces moving your money both engaging and practical. Each episode of this podcast feels like getting a direct feed from two experts who are as focused on the "why" behind market moves as they are on the potential opportunities those moves create.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

The Macro Trading Floor
Podcast Episodes
On Bessent, Gold & Idiosyncratic Trades [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 35:58
Alf and Brent are back to discuss the Bessent buyback plan and its impact on markets. The duo focuses on gold, the long-end and the USD as potential release valves. The discussion then moves to two macro idiosyncratic id…
On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:18
In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro PMs: when to use opti…
Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 38:21
Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the direction straight…
The Orange Variable [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 35:15
Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how to approach these in…
The Rebasement Trade [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 30:57
Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?
The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:25
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the best risk/reward ways…
Process, Process, Process [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 33:07
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent focus on various aspects of their…
Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 33:31
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis of new info: the Iran/US MoU in negotiation phase, ho…
New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:12
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to approach rates, currencies and equity markets for the f…
Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 33:20
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent are back discussing frameworks to approach this market as a short-term oriented trader or as a long-term focu…