How To Trade The Fed Cutting Cycle

How To Trade The Fed Cutting Cycle

Author: Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly September 20, 2024 Duration: 35:50
Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within. We are now also on Youtube, where you can see supporting charts and our bald heads. https://youtu.be/o1iDoADS0c4 Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20sep2024/

Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly bring the high-stakes energy of a dealing room straight to your headphones with The Macro Trading Floor. This isn't a dry lecture on economic theory; it's a dynamic conversation where complex global themes-from central bank decisions and inflation trends to geopolitical shifts and technological disruptions-are translated into clear market language. You'll hear their unfiltered analysis and genuine back-and-forth, which often leads to specific, actionable ideas for navigating currencies, bonds, and equities. The discussion naturally spans business, investing, and news, reflecting the hosts' own trading-floor mentality where all information is connected. Tune in for a blend of seasoned perspective and lively debate that makes understanding the forces moving your money both engaging and practical. Each episode of this podcast feels like getting a direct feed from two experts who are as focused on the "why" behind market moves as they are on the potential opportunities those moves create.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

The Macro Trading Floor
Podcast Episodes
Macro Crossroads: What's Next For Markets? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:18
Alf and Brent discuss the crossroads ahead of us for the economy and markets: the USD selling seems to have lost steam, and tariffs' impact on the economy won't be easy to judge for months. So, what lies ahead of us?
Time For The Fed To Turn Dovish? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 32:59
Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf…
Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 22:42
Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget…
Recession Risks & Reflexivity [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:18
Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative an…
Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?! [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 32:05
This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years t…
The Bond Vigilantes Are Here [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:48
Alf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it's typical in emerging markets i…
You Ready For Liberation Day? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:31
Alf and Brent discuss the ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs - and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration's long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent di…
Wake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is Huge [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:44
Alf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks…
Growth Scare: Yes or No? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:42
Alf and Brent unpack the last big market moves which investors are broadly interpreting as a growth scare. Is that the correct interpretation? And in general: are we going to have a US growth scare or not?
The Next Big Macro Trade [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 35:42
Markets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade co…