People are betting on war. Here’s why it matters

People are betting on war. Here’s why it matters

Author: The Times March 27, 2026 Duration: 32:50

Polymarket and Kalshi have become two of the fastest-growing online platforms in the prediction market, hosting bets where people can wager on the outcome of events, including on the conflict in Iran. But some observers have raised concerns that unusually precise, well-timed bets could point to insider dealings. So what exactly are prediction markets? And what does it mean for society when you can bet on almost anything?


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Guest: Chris Stokel-Walker, technology journalist and author.

Host: Manveen Rana.

Producer: Sophie McNulty & Julia Webster.

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Read more: Dollars and death threats: the dark side of prediction markets

Further listening: How AI helped Trump attack Iran

Clips: FRENCH 24 English, CNN, 60 Minutes, CBS News, Fox 10 Phoenix, iSpot, The Times, Coinbase. 

Photo: Getty Images.


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Each morning, The Story arrives with a clear purpose: to move beyond the headlines and explore the forces and people shaping our world. Guided by the experienced reporting of Manveen Rana and Luke Jones, this daily podcast from The Times delves into the most significant political developments and news events with a level of depth and context that only their global network of journalists can provide. You’ll hear more than just summaries; you’ll get a nuanced understanding of why a story matters, who it impacts, and what might happen next. The analysis is sharp and the storytelling is compelling, designed to fit into your morning routine seven days a week. It’s a direct line to the frontline reporting and editorial expertise of one of the world’s most respected news organizations. This consistent, in-depth approach makes the podcast a reliable resource for anyone looking to truly comprehend the day’s events. Supported by readers of The Times and The Sunday Times, the production maintains a commitment to journalistic integrity and thorough exploration, ensuring every episode provides substance and clarity.
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