Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe.
Israelis and many Americans -- not to mention Gulf Arabs -- were stunned by the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the Trump administration and the Iranians last month.
There was much to criticize in the MOU, but one of the most egregious elements was the inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire deal. Although neither Israel nor the Lebanese government were signatories to a deal between Washington and Tehran, it specifically mandated a halt to Israel's campaign against Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful proxy.
Then, last Friday, a reason for some hope.
As a beaming US Secretary of State Marco Rubio looked on, the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to Washington signed an agreement envisioning peace between the neighbors and the staged disarming of Hezbollah by the Lebanese army.
Could this be the beginning of the end for Hezbollah, the tool of Iranian control of Lebanon? Can we expect a real peace deal that would see Israelis and Lebanese moving across the border?
Or is this another half-baked Trump agreement that will lead nowhere, and will allow Israel's enemies to rebuild and keep their weapons?
Hanin Ghaddar, a Shiite Lebanese scholar who grew up in southern Lebanon, says that even her community is sick of Hezbollah. The turn against the organization -- which claims to represent and protect the Shia -- began a decade ago, as they sided against anti-government protestors.
With the country in a deep economic crisis and political stalemate, the organization dragged the country into war on October 8, 2023, in support of Hamas. The majority of Shiites in Lebanon, said Ghaddar, are done with Hezbollah. "The resistance is dead as a solution to everything," she posited. There's no belief in the resistance anymore. Hezbollah is still there with its arms, and people relate to it because of the factor of fear, not loyalty."
Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into a war in support of Iran again this year. Lebanese citizens want Israel out, but see an agreement as the way to accomplish that goal.
Ghaddar offered the possibility that the notoriously ineffective Lebanese military is actually more capable than Hezbollah after the Shiite militia was severely degraded by years of war with Israel. However, to disarm Hezbollah, she said, the Lebanese army must be willing to engage in armed conflict if necessary, with the backing of the US, Europe and Saudi Arabia.
She made the point that while Israel's relationships with Arab countries are with their governments, the public continues to disdain the Jewish state. In Lebanon's case, the public wants an end to the conflict with Israel, while governments have been loath to act.
"Lebanese are ready," she said. "Lebanese are definitely ready for peace."
Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.
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