Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe.
On the three major fronts with which Israel is contending, there has been some progress on the diplomatic front -- with the caveat that not everyone believes that is a good thing. Lazar and Gabriella Jacobs look at the latest in each of the three theaters -- Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza.
On Monday, President Donald Trump -- having called off a major joint strike with Israel -- said the US and Iran were in the midst of talks that could see the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened. Lazar argued that because of the November midterms and pressure from Gulf allies, Trump clearly doesn't want to go back to war, and Iran knows it. Tehran is not afraid of another major US campaign, and continues to raise its demands.
The diplomatic process in Lebanon is more promising. Israel and Lebanon met in Rome for the seventh round of direct talks this week. Though Lebanon wants Israel to pull its troops back more quickly, the US is not about to pressure Israel to do so. Despite a bloody week in southern Lebanon in which two Israeli soldiers were killed, as well as several Lebanese, the two sides still met.
At the same time, Lazar said, this process isn't about to disarm Hezbollah across the country. Major changes will need to take place within Lebanon for Hezbollah to decide that it has failed in its four-decade-long quest to destroy Israel through violence.
The Trump Administration and Board of Peace are claiming progress in Gaza, as they convince Hamas to sign on to a new disarmament roadmap. Israel has not ratified it, and insists it will continue to confront active threats. Indeed, Israeli strikes early in the week clearly frustrated mediators. Still, Lazar noted, officials tell him that noticeable restraint from the IDF is helpful, and there is cautious optimism coming from the Board of Peace.
Gabriella asked if the three diplomatic processes are linked. Lazar explained that Iran has been trying to unify the fronts against Israel, and situate itself as the arbiter of what happens in Lebanon, and maybe someday, in Gaza. Israel has successfully de-linked the fronts, while stressing that if the Islamic Republic falls, Hezbollah and Hamas are likely to follow.
Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.
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