Opinion Polls

Opinion Polls

Author: UCL Political Science June 13, 2024 Duration: 54:18

In the run up to the UK General Election we have a secial episode on opinion polls. 

Opinion polling is a staple of modern elections, captivating political enthusiasts with fluctuating numbers but also sparking controversy. Polls are sometimes criticized for inaccuracies, notably in the Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election. Polling methods, including sampling and voter prediction, are hotly debated. The emergence of MRP polls, which accurately estimated results in the 2017 UK election, has added to the intrigue, despite producing widely varying predictions for the outcome of the current UK election. So what should we make of the polls? And how can we best interpret all the numbers to understand what’s really going on?

Our guest is Prof Ben Lauderdale. Ben is Professor of Political Science here at UCL, a former Senior Data Science Advisor to the polling firm YouGov, the original brain behind the development of MRP methods and general polling guru.


Ever wonder what happens when sharp academic minds turn their focus to the headlines? UCL Uncovering Politics pulls back the curtain on the forces shaping our world, straight from the heart of one of the world's leading universities. This isn't a lecture series, but a series of conversations where complex ideas about power, culture, and society are made accessible and urgent. You'll hear researchers from UCL's Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy dissect everything from voting behaviour and international conflict to the philosophy underlying our social structures, connecting rigorous scholarship directly to current events. Each episode feels like sitting in on a fascinating discussion between experts who are as curious about the "why" behind political phenomena as they are knowledgeable. The podcast serves as a direct line to cutting-edge analysis, offering depth and context that goes far beyond the daily news cycle. By spotlighting the fantastic work done within the department, it provides listeners with a richer, more nuanced understanding of the mechanics behind culture, government, and the news we consume. Tune in for a thoughtful and genuinely enlightening exploration of contemporary politics, grounded in research but always engaged with the real world.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 161

UCL Uncovering Politics
Podcast Episodes
Politics in Northern Ireland [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:12
Most of the UK went to the polls last week, and the vote in Northern Ireland was perhaps particularly significant. Next year will mark 25 years since the 1998 Belfast or Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Nort…
Voting Systems and the Representation of Women [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 30:45
No democracy in the world has yet achieved equal representation for women in its national parliament. So it’s important to understand what could be done to improve the situation. One long-standing idea is that some elect…
The Politics of Climate Change [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 38:30
Climate change is – as the article we’re discussing this week puts it – ‘the quintessential long-term problem’. Action is needed to avert massive long-term harm. But the steps that are required will generate short-term c…
The Origins of the Secular State [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 29:32
Some states are secular, while others are based, to a greater or lesser degree, on religion. The difference matters. Secular states are more likely to respect the diverse perspectives of their citizens and protect a rang…
Courage in Politics [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 34:19
We’re looking this week at the political role of courage. The current, dreadful conflict in Ukraine provides numerous extraordinary examples of courage: of civilians who stand up to Russian tanks; of Ukraine’s president,…
The Transformation of British Welfare Policy [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 43:53
A new book out this month by our colleague Tom O’Grady begins with a remarkable quotation from a UN Special Rapporteur writing in 2018 about welfare reforms in the UK:‘British compassion’ – the rapporteur said – ‘has bee…
The Origins of Social Trust [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 34:02
We talk a lot about trust – or, more often, the lack of trust – in politics. Often we’re referring to people’s trust in politicians. But social trust – our trust in the people around us – matters too. The evidence from m…
Why did Argentina invade the Malvinas/Falklands in 1982? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 33:57
The fortieth anniversary of the Malvinas/Falklands War of 1982 is coming up in just a few weeks’ time. There will no doubt be many retrospectives, which, here in the UK, will focus on the actions of the British governmen…
The Pedagogy of Politics [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 41:07
How should we teach about politics? How – if at all – should teaching politics be different from teaching hard sciences, such as physics, or arts and humanities subjects, such as History or English, or indeed other socia…
Freeing Bureaucrats to Succeed [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:13
How can you best deliver effective public services? Is it better to exert top-down control over the work of bureaucrats on the ground – through targets, monitoring, and prescribed procedures – so that slacking or corrupt…