Podcast: The Truth About the Market
Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF
The headlines say the pre-owned aircraft market is flourishing.
Deals are closing faster.
Pricing is stabilizing.
Buyers are active.
But the data tells a very different story.
Inventory is essentially flat year over year. Asking prices have dropped materially. And yet transaction volume is collapsing.
That is not a normal buyer’s market.
In this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason breaks down the disconnect between the industry narrative and what the numbers are actually showing. Because when prices fall and deals still don’t clear, the problem is no longer just pricing.
It is confidence.
Buyers are stepping back.
Sellers are still reacting too late.
And the market is entering a dangerous zone where activity slows before true price discovery can happen.
In this episode, we cover:
- Why the “flourishing market” headline does not match current transaction data
- How inventory can remain stable while market participation collapses
- Why a 20 to 25 percent drop in average asking prices still has not unlocked demand
- What a 33 percent year-to-date drop in transaction volume really signals
- Why April’s nearly 46 percent decline matters more than most people realize
- The illusion of a buyer’s market when buyers are not actually transacting
- Why lower prices normally accelerate closings — and why that is not happening now
- How seller expectations are chasing the market lower, but still not closing the gap
- Why buyers are underwriting where they think the market is going, not where prices sit today
- How bid-ask deadlock forms when sellers adjust backward and buyers price forward
- Why transaction volume usually collapses before pricing finds a bottom
- The difference between price correction and liquidity breakdown
- Why time on market is now one of the clearest stress signals in the market
- How long-sitting inventory reveals structural resistance, not simple mispricing
- Why helicopters, older jets, turboprops, midsize aircraft, and super-mids are all responding differently
- How functional obsolescence is becoming a serious issue for older aircraft
- Why king airs and twin turboprops are facing more pressure as fuel and maintenance costs rise
- Why late-model aircraft are still holding better than the broader market
- What needs to happen before transaction activity returns
- Why liquidity often comes back in clusters, not gradually
- Why the next phase may involve motivated sellers, constrained operators, and forced timing decisions
Jason also explains why this moment is more dangerous than a sharp correction.
A correction forces decisions.
This market delays them.
It stretches timelines, widens the gap between expectations and reality, and creates a holding pattern where pressure continues building beneath the surface.
The bottom line:
This is not just a pricing problem anymore.
It's a confidence problem.
Markets do not reset all at once.
They compress.
They stall.
They freeze.
And then, when enough pressure builds, they move.
For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and aviation professionals worldwide, visit VREF.com.
Fly safe. Stay smart.
