Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal Services
Introduction
Hi everyone, and welcome to the very first episode of The Truth About the Market.
I'm your host, Jason Zilberbrand—President of VREF, long-time aviation appraiser, and someone who's spent over three decades deep in this industry. I've worked with everyone from individual owners to Fortune 50 operators. I've testified as an expert witness in major litigation. I've seen more cycles than I can count.
This podcast is about cutting through the BS—no fluff, no marketing spin, no sponsors. Just the unfiltered truth about aviation, aircraft values, and the industry trends that actually matter.
Today, we're tackling three big topics:
- The summer slowdown
- The impact of tariffs and supply chain issues
- What the back half of 2025 might actually look like
The Pre-Owned Aircraft Market is Softening
What everyone sees—but not everyone wants to admit—is that the pre-owned aircraft market is softening quickly.
- Inventories are rising across the board.
- Days on market are increasing.
- Even normally insulated categories like medium jets, light jets, and turboprops are affected.
- Prices are coming down.
Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for direction. Geopolitical instability—two escalating wars and the potential for U.S. involvement—certainly isn't helping.
Beyond Geopolitics: The Bigger Picture
While wars, interest rates, and stock market health are important, they don't fully explain the current shift. Looking at the bigger picture:
- Sales requests and financing requests are slowing.
- Defaults are starting to rise.
- This isn't the usual seasonal pattern.
Seasonal Slowdowns vs. This Summer
For those new to the industry, summer is often slower:
- Owners use their aircraft for vacations and events.
- Kids are out of school.
- Dealers prepare inventory in winter for spring sales.
On the business jet side, summers have historically been so slow that brokerages sometimes closed early on Fridays. But this summer feels different—there's more going on.
Post-COVID Market Cycle
Typical ownership cycles run 3–5 years. Many aircraft bought during the post-COVID buying rush are now hitting the market—often at overpaid prices.
- Prices are correcting back to pre-COVID levels.
- Demand is also back to pre-COVID norms.
- Trainer aircraft (C172, DA20, C182) remain strong due to limited supply, but all aircraft have a natural price ceiling—when they get too expensive, they compete with higher-category aircraft.
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Hear the podcast and see the full show notes at https://vref.com/news/the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-episode-1-8-8-25/
Contact: 📧 Jason@vref.com 🌐 vref.com
