In my Annual Prediction Show, I review my horrible 2024 predictions before making my new predictions. I got 4 out of 10 points, my worst year ever! I hope to do better this year!
My 2025 predictions
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1. A global recession crushes the US economy.
- In July 2022, the yield curve inverted and stayed inverted for 783 consecutive days, marking the longest period in U.S. history. In early September 2024, it un-inverted.
- Usually, a recession occurs about 12 months after the un-inversion.
- Admittedly, the recession can occur between 6 and 24 months after the un-inversion, so we could postpone it until 2026.
- However, disaster will likely strike before October 2025.
2. The US unemployment rate doubles.
The US unemployment rate is 4.2% at the end of 2024 and will be 8.4% by 2025.
3. Bitcoin loses more than half of its value.
Although BTC may climb to $150,000, it will eventually be around $50,000 in 2025, surprising everyone.
4. The S&P 500 drops at least 1,000 points.
The S&P 500, which measures US stocks, will drop below 5,000 (it is beginning 2025 around 6,000).
5. Ceasefire in Ukraine.
Trump won't "end the war in 24 hours," but his administration will broker a deal because both sides are getting tired of fighting. Ukraine is running low on men. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently lowered the draft age from 27 to 25.
Russia is running low on money. In mid-June, $1 bought 50 Russian rubles; in the last two months of 2024, $1 bought 100 rubles. Similarly, a barrel of petroleum has lost half of its value over the same period.
6. Elon Musk & Donald Trump end their bromance.
Two titanic personalities will struggle to share the spotlight.
7. Trump will fail to fulfill five of his most wacky campaign promises.
Although I dislike Trump, most of his critics never read his book The Art of the Deal, which explains his negotiating strategy: start with an absurd offer or demand, then negotiate down from there.
Trump is a dog that barks constantly but rarely bites.
The Left squirms and takes his every word seriously, failing to see that it's just bluster, a negotiation tactic, or just a joke meant to offend the easily offended.
Here are 5 campaign promises Donald Trump will fail to keep.
- Promise: Deporting 13 million people. Reality: he'll deport less than one million.
- Promise: Death Penalty for Drug Dealers. Reality: It won't happen; we struggle to execute mass murderers.
- Promise: 60% tariff on Chinese goods and up to 20% on all imports. Reality: At most, he'll get a 10% broad tariff and higher tariffs on targeted, symbolic goods (like Chinese cars).
- Promise: Abolishing the Department of Education. Reality: It won't happen, although the Department of Education will get cuts thanks to Musk's DOGE.
- Promise: Military Action Against Drug Cartels. Reality: It won't happen.
7. I'll finish The Unseen Africa.
This book has been 10 years in the making, so it's due.
To see my previous forecasts, check out my predictions for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.
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