#238 – Sam Winter-Levy and Nikita Lalwani on how AGI won't end mutually assured destruction (probably)

#238 – Sam Winter-Levy and Nikita Lalwani on how AGI won't end mutually assured destruction (probably)

Author: The 80,000 Hours team March 10, 2026 Duration: 1:13:19

How AI interacts with nuclear deterrence may be the single most important question in geopolitics — one that may define the stakes of today’s AI race. Nuclear deterrence rests on a state’s capacity to respond to a nuclear attack with a devastating nuclear strike of its own. But some theorists think that sophisticated AI could eliminate this capability — for example, by locating and destroying all of an adversary’s nuclear weapons simultaneously, by disabling command-and-control networks, or by enhancing missile defence systems. If they are right, whichever country got those capabilities first could wield unprecedented coercive power.

Today’s guests — Nikita Lalwani and Sam Winter-Levy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — assess how advances in AI might threaten nuclear deterrence:

  • Would AI be able to locate nuclear submarines hiding in a vast, opaque ocean?
  • Would road-mobile launchers still be able to hide in tunnels and under netting?
  • Would missile defence become so accurate that the United States could be protected under something like Israel’s Iron Dome?
  • Can we imagine an AI cybersecurity breakthrough that would allow countries to infiltrate their rivals’ nuclear command-and-control networks?

Yet even without undermining deterrence, Sam and Nikita claim that AI could make the nuclear world far more dangerous. It could spur arms races, encourage riskier postures, and force dangerously short response times. Their message is urgent: AI experts and nuclear experts need to start talking to each other now, before the technology makes any conversation moot.


Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/swlnl

This episode was recorded on November 24, 2025.

Chapters:

  • Cold open (00:00:00)
  • Who are Nikita Lalwani and Sam Winter-Levy? (00:01:00)
  • AI experts are ignoring the most important variable in geopolitics (00:01:47)
  • AI vs nuclear submarines (00:10:43)
  • AI vs road-mobile missiles (00:22:56)
  • AI vs missile defence systems (00:29:34)
  • AI vs nuclear command, control, and communications (00:36:30)
  • Nuclear deterrence may hold, but that won’t stop arms racing (00:45:01)
  • Technological supremacy isn’t political supremacy (00:54:14)
  • Fast AI takeoff creates dangerous “windows of vulnerability” (00:58:29)
  • Book and movie recommendations (01:10:54)

Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
Music: CORBIT
Coordination, transcripts, and web: Nick Stockton and Katy Moore


The 80,000 Hours Podcast, from The 80,000 Hours team, digs into the complex and often overlooked questions surrounding how we can best use our careers to tackle the world's most pressing problems. While artificial intelligence is a recurring and critical theme, framing some of the most important conversations you won't hear elsewhere, the discussions range far wider into the intersections of technology, policy, philosophy, and global priorities. Hosts Rob Wiblin, Luisa Rodriguez, and Zershaaneh Qureshi guide in-depth interviews with researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, breaking down daunting ideas into actionable insights. You'll hear nuanced analyses of career paths, ethical dilemmas in emerging tech, and evidence-based strategies for creating a positive impact. This isn't about quick tips; it's about deep, substantive exploration of how specific choices and systemic changes can lead to a better future. The podcast lives in the Education and Technology categories because it fundamentally aims to equip listeners with the knowledge and perspective to navigate a rapidly changing world thoughtfully. Each episode is built on rigorous research, challenging assumptions while maintaining a conversational and accessible tone. Tune in for a consistently engaging and intellectually honest look at the forces shaping our century and the practical steps individuals can take within their own 80,000-hour working lives to make a meaningful difference.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

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