#240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war

#240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war

Author: The 80,000 Hours team March 24, 2026 Duration: 1:15:36

Many people believe a ceasefire in Ukraine will leave Europe safer. But today's guest lays out how a deal could potentially generate insidious new risks — leaving us in a situation that's equally dangerous, just in different ways.

That’s the counterintuitive argument from Samuel Charap, Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND. He’s not worried about a Russian blitzkrieg on Estonia. He forecasts instead a fragile peace that breaks down and drags in European neighbours; instability in Belarus prompting Russian intervention; hybrid sabotage operations that escalate through tit-for-tat responses.

Samuel’s case isn’t that peace is bad, but that the Ukraine conflict has remilitarised Europe, made Russia more resentful, and collapsed diplomatic relations between the two. That’s a postwar environment primed for the kind of miscalculation that starts unintended wars.

What he prescribes isn’t a full peace treaty; it’s a negotiated settlement that stops the killing and begins a longer negotiation that gives neither side exactly what it wants, but just enough to deter renewed aggression. Both sides stop dying and the flames of war fizzle — hopefully.

None of this is clean or satisfying: Russia invaded, committed war crimes, and is being offered a path back to partial normalcy. But Samuel argues that the alternatives — indefinite war or unstructured ceasefire — are much worse for Ukraine, Europe, and global stability.


Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/sc26

This episode was recorded on February 27, 2026.

Chapters:

  • Cold open (00:00:00)
  • Could peace in Ukraine lead to Europe’s next war? (00:00:47)
  • Do Russia’s motives for war still matter? (00:11:58)
  • What does a good ceasefire deal look like? (00:18:16)
  • What’s still holding back a ceasefire (00:40:15)
  • Why Russia might accept Ukraine’s EU membership (00:47:51)
  • How to prevent a spiraling conflict with NATO (00:49:58)
  • What’s next for nuclear arms control (00:51:56)
  • Finland and Sweden strengthened NATO — but also raised the stakes for conflict (00:55:36)
  • Putin isn’t Hitler: How to negotiate with autocrats (00:58:53)
  • Why Russia still takes NATO seriously (01:04:33)
  • Neither side wants to fight this war again (01:14:04)

Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
Music: CORBIT
Transcripts and web: Nick Stockton, Elizabeth Cox, and Katy Moore


The 80,000 Hours Podcast, from The 80,000 Hours team, digs into the complex and often overlooked questions surrounding how we can best use our careers to tackle the world's most pressing problems. While artificial intelligence is a recurring and critical theme, framing some of the most important conversations you won't hear elsewhere, the discussions range far wider into the intersections of technology, policy, philosophy, and global priorities. Hosts Rob Wiblin, Luisa Rodriguez, and Zershaaneh Qureshi guide in-depth interviews with researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, breaking down daunting ideas into actionable insights. You'll hear nuanced analyses of career paths, ethical dilemmas in emerging tech, and evidence-based strategies for creating a positive impact. This isn't about quick tips; it's about deep, substantive exploration of how specific choices and systemic changes can lead to a better future. The podcast lives in the Education and Technology categories because it fundamentally aims to equip listeners with the knowledge and perspective to navigate a rapidly changing world thoughtfully. Each episode is built on rigorous research, challenging assumptions while maintaining a conversational and accessible tone. Tune in for a consistently engaging and intellectually honest look at the forces shaping our century and the practical steps individuals can take within their own 80,000-hour working lives to make a meaningful difference.
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