How much does a vote matter? (Article)

How much does a vote matter? (Article)

Author: The 80,000 Hours team October 28, 2024 Duration: 32:32

If you care about social impact, is voting important? In this piece, Rob investigates the two key things that determine the impact of your vote:

  1. The chances of your vote changing an election’s outcome.
  2. How much better some candidates are for the world as a whole, compared to others.

He then discusses a couple of the best arguments against voting in important elections, namely:

  1. If an election is competitive, that means other people disagree about which option is better, and you’re at some risk of voting for the worse candidate by mistake.
  2. While voting itself doesn’t take long, knowing enough to accurately pick which candidate is better for the world actually does take substantial effort — effort that could be better allocated elsewhere.

Finally, Rob covers the impact of donating to campaigns or working to "get out the vote," which can be effective ways to generate additional votes for your preferred candidate.

We last released this article in October 2020, but we think it largely still stands up today.

Chapters:

  • Rob's intro (00:00:00)
  • Introduction (00:01:12)
  • What's coming up (00:02:35)
  • The probability of one vote changing an election (00:03:58)
  • How much does it matter who wins? (00:09:29)
  • What if you’re wrong? (00:16:38)
  • Is deciding how to vote too much effort? (00:21:47)
  • How much does it cost to drive one extra vote? (00:25:13)
  • Overall, is it altruistic to vote? (00:29:38)
  • Rob's outro (00:31:19)

Producer: Keiran Harris


The 80,000 Hours Podcast, from The 80,000 Hours team, digs into the complex and often overlooked questions surrounding how we can best use our careers to tackle the world's most pressing problems. While artificial intelligence is a recurring and critical theme, framing some of the most important conversations you won't hear elsewhere, the discussions range far wider into the intersections of technology, policy, philosophy, and global priorities. Hosts Rob Wiblin, Luisa Rodriguez, and Zershaaneh Qureshi guide in-depth interviews with researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, breaking down daunting ideas into actionable insights. You'll hear nuanced analyses of career paths, ethical dilemmas in emerging tech, and evidence-based strategies for creating a positive impact. This isn't about quick tips; it's about deep, substantive exploration of how specific choices and systemic changes can lead to a better future. The podcast lives in the Education and Technology categories because it fundamentally aims to equip listeners with the knowledge and perspective to navigate a rapidly changing world thoughtfully. Each episode is built on rigorous research, challenging assumptions while maintaining a conversational and accessible tone. Tune in for a consistently engaging and intellectually honest look at the forces shaping our century and the practical steps individuals can take within their own 80,000-hour working lives to make a meaningful difference.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

80,000 Hours Podcast
Podcast Episodes
What makes for a dream job? | Benjamin Todd [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 28:18
What actually makes a job fulfilling? It's not what most career advice tells you. "Follow your passion" sounds inspiring, but it's misleading — and the research backs that up.Drawing on hundreds of studies, we’ve identif…
How scary is Claude Mythos? 303 pages in 21 minutes [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 21:27
With Claude Mythos we have an AI that knows when it's being tested, can obscure its reasoning when it wants, and is better at breaking into (and out of) computers than any human alive. Rob Wiblin works through its 244-pa…