Actions in Iran

Key Points:  Iran has been severely weakened by sanctions and the death of Soleimani further destabilizes Iran   The death of Soleimani is part of a three-part strategy:   Constrain Iran’s malign activity   Roll back Iran’s influence in the region - especially in Iraq  Deter further Iranian aggression  Iran hopes that the death of Soleimani would galvanize its population   Iran’s strategic information capabilities are significant   The IRGC are more ideologically entrenched than the conventional Iranian military forces   Iran is unlikely to want to confront the U.S. again in a direct fashion   Future attacks will allow Iran deniability   Attacks are likely to occur against U.S. allies in the region   Expect a back channel movement to establish a diplomatic resolution – ease sanctions   A significant portion of the Iraqi population wants Iranian influence out of Iraq   Kim Jung Un is watching this closely   China remains a critical aspect to resolution with North Korea   China could provide military and nuclear top cover for North Korea  For the first time, Iran, China, and Russia held joint naval exercises   Remains to be seen if this partnership will embolden Iran   Remains to be seen if Russia and China will stand behind the actions of Iran   If Iran attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, China would be greatly impacted