Derek Moore and Shane Skinner dig into what history says about September in a midterm election year, and why Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into the month. Plus, a long look at federal receipts versus federal outlays as a percent of GDP and what top tax rates did and did not do to revenue, the widening spread between mega cap winners and losers in 2026, and a forward earnings check on Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Costco, and the S&P 500 itself. All that and more this week.
S&P 500 September performance in midterm election years going back to 1928.
September is historically the weakest month, but midterm years have their own pattern.
Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into September.
What being on high alert actually means for someone already invested and hedged.
Federal receipts and federal net outlays as a percent of GDP going back to the 1930s.
Outlays keep running above receipts, and that gap is where the deficit comes from.
The top individual income tax bracket has fallen from over 90% since the 1940s.
Higher top tax rates have not reliably produced higher receipts as a share of GDP.
Schwab data ranks 2026 performance and index contribution across the mega caps.
Micron leads the group up 226.8% while Tesla is down 22.5% as of August 28, 2026.
Apple at 17.6%, Nvidia at 16.6%, and Amazon at 15.4% beat the Nasdaq's 13.6%.
Meta is down 12.4% and sits near the bottom on contribution to the S&P 500.
Nvidia trades near 17 times forward earnings on estimates of $12.83 a share.
Alphabet sits near 19 times forward earnings versus Apple at over 33 times.
Tesla's forward P/E is above 180 while Costco holds near 41 times.
The S&P 500 near 7,689 on forward earnings estimates of about $394 a share.
That works out to roughly 19.4 times forward earnings for the index.
SpaceX vs Tesla forward price to earnings ratio
Are index level multiples reasonable when the leadership is this uneven?
Mentioned in this Episode
Santoli: Why investors should be on high alert heading into September https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/santoli-why-investors-should-be-on-high-alert-heading-into-september.html
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
