Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?
The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(02:05) - Reunion at the Table
(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format
(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization
(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout
(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash
(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate
(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn
(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check
(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear
(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios
(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame
(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves
(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke
(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate
(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union
(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks
(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession
(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear
(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum
(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario
(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion
(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints
(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash
(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster
(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons
(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation
(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate
(01:09:31) - End of Nation State
(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity
(01:12:04) - Broken World of More
(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse
(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand
(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply
(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal
(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions
(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown
(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break
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Referenced in the Show:
https://zeihan.com/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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