How Russia Could Beat NATO, War of Attrition over Taiwan, and How Ukraine Turned the Tide

How Russia Could Beat NATO, War of Attrition over Taiwan, and How Ukraine Turned the Tide

Author: Silverado Policy Accelerator June 29, 2026 Duration: 52:33
Franz-Stefan Gady just played the Russian Chief of General Staff in a German war game — and won. He joins Dmitri Alperovitch to explain how he manufactured a NATO crisis in the summer of 2026, why the U.S. is built for the wrong war over Taiwan, and how Ukraine quietly turned its fortunes around heading into 2026. In this episode: How Russia could beat NATO without firing on it. Inside the Bundeswehr war game where Gady cut off the Baltics with a "humanitarian corridor" into Lithuania, an information-warfare campaign that split European politics, and nuclear saber-rattling aimed at Berlin — and his unsettling conclusion that Russia may not need a ground invasion at all. A war of attrition over Taiwan. Why sinking China's invasion fleet — the celebrated "hellscape" — is the easy part, and what happens on "day after" once U.S. precision munitions run dry and Xi refuses to go home. Alperovitch and Gady debate whether denial alone wins anything, and how a conflict neither side can decisively win punishes whoever has the weaker defense-industrial base. How Ukraine turned the tide. Stabilized manpower, a cleaner chain of command, a real edge in unmanned warfare (helped by Starlink finally going dark for Russian units), and a new mid and long-range strike advantage — set against the relentless Donbas grind and the debate over whether drones have killed maneuver warfare or just split the sky in two. 00:00 Introduction 00:58 How Russia Could Defeat NATO: A War Game 07:42 Potential Russian Air Campaign Against Europe 09:48 Result of the Russia-NATO War Game 13:13 German Brigade in Lithuania: Obstacle for Russia? 15:34 Can Russia Achieve Strategic Surprise? 17:10 How to Defend the Baltics 24:04 NATO's Deficiencies in Ballistic Missiles 27:28 US-China Conflict: Could It Turn Into a War of Attrition? 29:35 Maritime vs. Land Warfare: The Taiwan Dilemma 35:10 What Happens After the PLA Fleet is Sunk? 40:48 Ukrainian Military Successes in 2026 48:15 Are Conditions Right for the Return of Maneuver Warfare? 49:36 Splitting the Air Space: High and Low Altitude Air Superiority

Hosted by Dmitri Alperovitch and presented by the Silverado Policy Accelerator, Geopolitics Decanted offers a deep and nuanced examination of the forces shaping our world. This isn't about quick headlines; it's a podcast dedicated to patient, detailed analysis and substantive conversations with leading experts. Each episode distills complex international issues, moving beyond superficial narratives to explore the underlying strategies, technologies, and economic instruments at play. You'll hear focused discussions on ongoing conflicts like the war in Ukraine, the multifaceted competition between major powers, and the evolving tools of statecraft, from economic sanctions and export controls to cybersecurity threats and the global race for semiconductor supremacy. Geopolitics Decanted is for those who feel that understanding global affairs requires more than sound bites-it demands context, historical perspective, and a willingness to engage with the granular details that truly define geopolitical shifts. Through these in-depth interviews and Alperovitch's own commentary, the podcast provides listeners with a clearer, more comprehensive framework for making sense of an increasingly interconnected and contested global landscape.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch
Podcast Episodes
The One Factor That Could Crash the Russian Economy [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:02:17
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer about the state of the Russian economy in 2025. They talk about inflation and its impact on people and business, why the ruble is collapsing, which sancti…
Putin’s Nuclear Meltdown [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 43:28
Dmitri Alperovitch talks all things nukes with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the M…
Inside the Drone War Arms Race in Ukraine [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:03:30
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) about the latest updates in the evolution of drone warfare on the battlefields in Ukraine. They discuss: - How Ground Unmanned Vehicles (GUVs) are b…
Ukraine Finally Has F-16s. What Now? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 56:37
After many months long wait, F-16s have finally arrived in Ukraine. How are the Ukrainians likely to use them and what are the challenges and opportunities presented by the introduction of this new weapons platform? Dmit…
How China Might Invade Taiwan: A World on the Brink Scenario [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 58:36
Dmitri Alperovitch and his co-author Garrett Graff discuss their upcoming book “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century” and include an exclusive audiobook excerpt from the…
New Secrets From the Cold War and Lessons for Cold War II With China [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 52:13
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sergey Radchenko, one of the Cold War’s preeminent historians, about the untold secrets of that period based on Sergey’s unique access to recently declassified Soviet and Chinese archives. T…
How the US Planned to Respond to Russia Using a Nuke in Ukraine [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 44:16
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Bill Hennigan, a New York Times opinion writer currently publishing a series of articles called "At the Brink," focused on nuclear threats and the challenges our world faces in combating pro…
The Trinity Revolution in Warfare: Precision, Sensors and Comms [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 51:52
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor for The Economist, about the changing nature of warfare and the impact of proliferation and affordability of precision munitions, sensor ubiquity and digital c…
Why North Korea is Probably Not Planning a War [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 55:33
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institu…