How Russia Could Beat NATO, War of Attrition over Taiwan, and How Ukraine Turned the Tide

How Russia Could Beat NATO, War of Attrition over Taiwan, and How Ukraine Turned the Tide

Author: Silverado Policy Accelerator June 29, 2026 Duration: 52:33
Franz-Stefan Gady just played the Russian Chief of General Staff in a German war game — and won. He joins Dmitri Alperovitch to explain how he manufactured a NATO crisis in the summer of 2026, why the U.S. is built for the wrong war over Taiwan, and how Ukraine quietly turned its fortunes around heading into 2026. In this episode: How Russia could beat NATO without firing on it. Inside the Bundeswehr war game where Gady cut off the Baltics with a "humanitarian corridor" into Lithuania, an information-warfare campaign that split European politics, and nuclear saber-rattling aimed at Berlin — and his unsettling conclusion that Russia may not need a ground invasion at all. A war of attrition over Taiwan. Why sinking China's invasion fleet — the celebrated "hellscape" — is the easy part, and what happens on "day after" once U.S. precision munitions run dry and Xi refuses to go home. Alperovitch and Gady debate whether denial alone wins anything, and how a conflict neither side can decisively win punishes whoever has the weaker defense-industrial base. How Ukraine turned the tide. Stabilized manpower, a cleaner chain of command, a real edge in unmanned warfare (helped by Starlink finally going dark for Russian units), and a new mid and long-range strike advantage — set against the relentless Donbas grind and the debate over whether drones have killed maneuver warfare or just split the sky in two. 00:00 Introduction 00:58 How Russia Could Defeat NATO: A War Game 07:42 Potential Russian Air Campaign Against Europe 09:48 Result of the Russia-NATO War Game 13:13 German Brigade in Lithuania: Obstacle for Russia? 15:34 Can Russia Achieve Strategic Surprise? 17:10 How to Defend the Baltics 24:04 NATO's Deficiencies in Ballistic Missiles 27:28 US-China Conflict: Could It Turn Into a War of Attrition? 29:35 Maritime vs. Land Warfare: The Taiwan Dilemma 35:10 What Happens After the PLA Fleet is Sunk? 40:48 Ukrainian Military Successes in 2026 48:15 Are Conditions Right for the Return of Maneuver Warfare? 49:36 Splitting the Air Space: High and Low Altitude Air Superiority

Hosted by Dmitri Alperovitch and presented by the Silverado Policy Accelerator, Geopolitics Decanted offers a deep and nuanced examination of the forces shaping our world. This isn't about quick headlines; it's a podcast dedicated to patient, detailed analysis and substantive conversations with leading experts. Each episode distills complex international issues, moving beyond superficial narratives to explore the underlying strategies, technologies, and economic instruments at play. You'll hear focused discussions on ongoing conflicts like the war in Ukraine, the multifaceted competition between major powers, and the evolving tools of statecraft, from economic sanctions and export controls to cybersecurity threats and the global race for semiconductor supremacy. Geopolitics Decanted is for those who feel that understanding global affairs requires more than sound bites-it demands context, historical perspective, and a willingness to engage with the granular details that truly define geopolitical shifts. Through these in-depth interviews and Alperovitch's own commentary, the podcast provides listeners with a clearer, more comprehensive framework for making sense of an increasingly interconnected and contested global landscape.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch
Podcast Episodes
Why Taiwan’s Military Modernization Is Moving Too Slowly [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:03:47
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vincent Chao, a Taiwanese politician and former diplomat and national security strategist, about why Taiwan is moving so slowly to modernize its military and increase deterrence of an existe…
How Russia’s Winter Offensive Could Backfire [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 48:54
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Michael Kofman to discuss the strategic mistakes of Russia's current offensive in the Donbas and the prospects of an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. We also dive into the implicatio…
Interview: This American Spent 10 Months Fighting in Ukraine [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:04:47
Dmitri Alperovitch talks to David Bramlette, a former U.S. Ranger and Green Beret combat veteran, who has recently returned from fighting with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Dav…
How Russia is Working Around Western Sanctions and Export Controls [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 24:54
Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Silverado's own experts - Sarah Stewart (CEO) and Andy David (Senior Director of Research and Analysis) about Silverado's new just published research report that dives deep into the analysis o…
Why Ukraine May Try to Retake Crimea Next [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:01:58
Since the start of the Russian invasion last February, it has been a commonly accepted wisdom that Ukraine will not try to retake Crimea - an action that many in the West worry will trigger an escalation - until it has t…
How Dwindling Ammunition Stocks Could Decide the Outcome of the War [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 46:53
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian military expert Michael Kofman about: - Why this war may be decided by which side can stretch their ammunition supplies the longest - Putin’s visit to Belarus and whether a new Russi…
New Phase of the War: Ukraine Faces Tough Decisions [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 47:47
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman - The strategic impact of Russian terror strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure - Likelihood of a near-term Ukrainian offensive to retake the South - Is Ukr…