Iran war: regional shock or global crisis?

Iran war: regional shock or global crisis?

Author: Chatham House March 27, 2026 Duration: 30:15

One month on from the start of the US and Israeli war on Iran, governments worldwide are trying to assess the scale of its long-term impact on the global economy and political system.

Much will depend on how long the conflict continues, and how long Iran blocks fuel exports and other cargo vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The White House and Iran have sent conflicting signals about whether negotiations are under way, even as thousands of US troops head to the Middle East. And even if President Trump secures a ceasefire with Iran, it is unclear if US and Israel are aligned on their visions for an end game.

Our panel assesses whether the world is headed for a 1973-style shock to the global economic system, pushing up inflation and cutting growth. And how Europe, Russia, China, and other nations will deal with a crisis that has disrupted energy flows and supply chains.

Joining regular host Bronwen Maddox are David Lubin, senior research fellow in Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme, and Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe, Russia, and Eurasia programmes. 

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell.

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Hosted by Chatham House director Bronwen Maddox, Independent Thinking brings the institute’s private deliberations into the public ear. This isn’t a rehearsed lecture series, but a direct channel into candid, high-level discussions typically held behind closed doors. Maddox guides conversations with a carefully selected mix of leading policymakers, frontline journalists, and Chatham House’s own deep bench of experts, focusing on the international political issues that are shaping headlines and rewriting global strategies. The tone is analytical yet accessible, privileging substance and nuance over soundbites. Each episode feels like a privileged seat at a crucial roundtable, where complex topics-from shifting alliances and economic sanctions to climate diplomacy and conflict-are unpacked with clarity and intellectual rigor. Listeners gain a clearer understanding of the forces driving world events, hearing diverse perspectives clash and converge in real time. For anyone looking to move beyond the superficial news cycle and engage with the substantive arguments defining our geopolitics, this podcast offers an essential and thoughtful resource. It’s where informed opinion meets the pressing questions of our moment, fostering a deeper kind of political literacy.
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