Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Gary Marcus is amongst the world’s leading skeptics on the AI revolution. So it’s worth taking note when Marcus admits that “of course we are getting to AGI eventually”. No, he says, artificial general intelligence (AGI) won’t take place in 2027 or perhaps even 2050. But it will happen, he confidently predicts, by 2100. So that only underlines Marcus’ argument, made in his acclaimed 2024 book Taming Silicon Valley, of the desperate need to regulate AI before it regulates us. And it also contextualizes our short term preoccupation with corporate pioneers of generative AI technology like OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind and xAI. As Marcus argues, it’s likely that the dominant AI technology that will get us to AGI by the end of the 21st century hasn’t even been invented yet.
Gary Marcus is a leading voice in artificial intelligence, well known for his challenges to contemporary AI. He is a scientist and best-selling author and was founder and CEO of Geometric.AI, a machine learning company acquired by Uber. A Professor Emeritus at NYU, he is the author of five previous books, including the bestseller Guitar Zero, Kluge (one of The Economist's eight best books on the brain and consciousness), and Rebooting AI (with Ernest Davis), one of Forbes's seven must-read books on AI.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
01.20.23: That Was The Week in Tech
GEORGE KENNAN: A Life Caught Between the United States and the Soviet Union
Curtis White on Transcendence: How Art and Dharma Can Save Us in a Time of Collapse
Can an Updated Version of Dale Carnegie's 20th Century Help Us Fix Our 21st Century Future
Why the Best Lessons in Life are Experienced rather than Learned
The Revolt against Humanity: Adam Kirsch Imagines a Future Without Humanity"
LIFE ON MARS: IMAGINING THE FIRST CITY ON THE RED PLANET
Jacqueline Jones: What Does the Plight of Boston's Black Workers in the Civil War Era Tells Us About the Struggle Today of All Americans For an Honest Living?
Jayne Ann Krentz: Genre Fiction Matters Because It Enables Writers to Address Perennial Moral Issues Like Honor and How to Distinguish Between Right and Wrong
Pico Iyer: Why Travel Writing is a Form of Memoir and How Covid Has Changed How We See the World
Jared Yates Sexton: Midnight in America? Why the Coming Crisis in the Republic Offers Hope For a Better Future
Angela Stent: Why 2023 Probably Won't Bring An End to the War in Ukraine and Other Unpalatable Truths From the Putin World
Corinne Sawers: Why the Pro-Market American Model of Confronting Today's Climate Emergency Might Offer the Most Realistic Way to Get to Net Zero