Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Gary Marcus is amongst the world’s leading skeptics on the AI revolution. So it’s worth taking note when Marcus admits that “of course we are getting to AGI eventually”. No, he says, artificial general intelligence (AGI) won’t take place in 2027 or perhaps even 2050. But it will happen, he confidently predicts, by 2100. So that only underlines Marcus’ argument, made in his acclaimed 2024 book Taming Silicon Valley, of the desperate need to regulate AI before it regulates us. And it also contextualizes our short term preoccupation with corporate pioneers of generative AI technology like OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind and xAI. As Marcus argues, it’s likely that the dominant AI technology that will get us to AGI by the end of the 21st century hasn’t even been invented yet.
Gary Marcus is a leading voice in artificial intelligence, well known for his challenges to contemporary AI. He is a scientist and best-selling author and was founder and CEO of Geometric.AI, a machine learning company acquired by Uber. A Professor Emeritus at NYU, he is the author of five previous books, including the bestseller Guitar Zero, Kluge (one of The Economist's eight best books on the brain and consciousness), and Rebooting AI (with Ernest Davis), one of Forbes's seven must-read books on AI.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Brad Feld: The Tech Community Needs To Be Humble to Survive With What Will Be a "Challenging" 2023
Beezy Marsh: Remembering a London of 1946 in Which Fearsome Female Gangsters Ran the Show
Leigh Goodmark on the Case for Abolition Feminism: Why We Need to Decriminalize Domestic Violence
Frank Smyth: Don't Shoot Me, I'm Only the Messenger: Why the Bad 2022 News About Gun Proliferation and Violence in America Will Probably Only Get Worse in 2023
Peter Pomerantsev: Why the "Evil" Russian Invasion of Ukraine Will Only End When the West Arms Ukraine With Missiles That Can Reach Russian Cities
Kevin Boyle: How to Escape the Culture-War Paranoia That Has Infected American Politics Since the Sixties
William Deresiewicz: Why 2022 Was a Good Year For American Liberals Fighting Against the Fundamentalism of Both Left- and Right-Wing Intolerance
Chris Schroeder: How to Read 100 Books in 2023 Without Going to Live in a Library or a Bookstore
Rick Wartzman: How Joe Biden Has Done More For Labor Unions Than Any President Since FDR and What to Hope For in 2023 to Maintain This Progress
Jenny Kleeman on Humanity's Fate in 2022: Have We All Become Frogs Being Slowly Boiled Alive in the Pot of Technological "Progress"?
Soli Özel on the Middle East in 2022: Iran, Israel, Turkey, the Gulf, and the Other Asymmetries of a Multi-Polar Region
Gary Gerstle: How Liz Truss, The Russian Invasion of Ukraine, and Joe Biden's Economic Policies Have All Contributed to the Decline, and Perhaps Even Death, of Neo-Liberalism in 2022
Christopher Leonard: Why Our Inflationary Crisis Might Not Be Over and How This Could Trigger a Broader Economic Collapse in 2023