Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Gary Marcus is amongst the world’s leading skeptics on the AI revolution. So it’s worth taking note when Marcus admits that “of course we are getting to AGI eventually”. No, he says, artificial general intelligence (AGI) won’t take place in 2027 or perhaps even 2050. But it will happen, he confidently predicts, by 2100. So that only underlines Marcus’ argument, made in his acclaimed 2024 book Taming Silicon Valley, of the desperate need to regulate AI before it regulates us. And it also contextualizes our short term preoccupation with corporate pioneers of generative AI technology like OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind and xAI. As Marcus argues, it’s likely that the dominant AI technology that will get us to AGI by the end of the 21st century hasn’t even been invented yet.
Gary Marcus is a leading voice in artificial intelligence, well known for his challenges to contemporary AI. He is a scientist and best-selling author and was founder and CEO of Geometric.AI, a machine learning company acquired by Uber. A Professor Emeritus at NYU, he is the author of five previous books, including the bestseller Guitar Zero, Kluge (one of The Economist's eight best books on the brain and consciousness), and Rebooting AI (with Ernest Davis), one of Forbes's seven must-read books on AI.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
MinaLima on The Art of Designing the Graphics For the Harry Potter and Fantastic Beast Films
There's More to Life Than Politics: Orville Schell's Fictional Message to Xi Jinping
Kristin Keffeler: Why Do We Care About the Scions of Wealthy American Families Struggling to Find Purpose?
Josiah Ober: In a Time of Hostility Toward Reason and Science, What Can the Ancient Greeks Teach us About the Value of Rationality?
Michael J. Wolf: If AI, Web3.0, and the Metaverse Are Utopian Pipe Dreams, What Internet Innovation Can Actually Help Save the World?
Robert Draper on Weapons of Mass Distraction: How the Republican Party Lost Its Mind After the January 6 Insurrection
Bruce Davis: Do the Oscars Have a Future in an Age of Superhero Sequels and Prequels?
Shahan Mufti: How the 1977 Siege of Washington Marks the Beginning of Our Preoccupation With "Terrorist" Violence and Real-Time News
Andrew Koppelman: How American Libertarianism Became the Delusional Ideology of Greedy, Selfish Capitalists
Fred Hogge on An Icy Truth: How We've Used Cold to Transform Humanity and Destroy the Environment
Roger Ballen: Why Good Photography Should Get Underneath Our Skin and Assault Us
Michael P. Leiter: Why the Latest Battle Between Elon Musk and Twitter Works Is Part of a Bigger War About Burnout and the Need to Manage People's Relationships With Their Jobs
Gary Marcus: Why Smart Machines Will Probably Never Replicate the Human Act of Writing and How Writers Should View AI Suspiciously —"Like a Hawk"