Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Gary Marcus is amongst the world’s leading skeptics on the AI revolution. So it’s worth taking note when Marcus admits that “of course we are getting to AGI eventually”. No, he says, artificial general intelligence (AGI) won’t take place in 2027 or perhaps even 2050. But it will happen, he confidently predicts, by 2100. So that only underlines Marcus’ argument, made in his acclaimed 2024 book Taming Silicon Valley, of the desperate need to regulate AI before it regulates us. And it also contextualizes our short term preoccupation with corporate pioneers of generative AI technology like OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind and xAI. As Marcus argues, it’s likely that the dominant AI technology that will get us to AGI by the end of the 21st century hasn’t even been invented yet.
Gary Marcus is a leading voice in artificial intelligence, well known for his challenges to contemporary AI. He is a scientist and best-selling author and was founder and CEO of Geometric.AI, a machine learning company acquired by Uber. A Professor Emeritus at NYU, he is the author of five previous books, including the bestseller Guitar Zero, Kluge (one of The Economist's eight best books on the brain and consciousness), and Rebooting AI (with Ernest Davis), one of Forbes's seven must-read books on AI.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Martin Rees on the Limits of Science: Why the Universe Might Be Too Complex For Humans to Ever Understand
Michael Stein on Accidental Kindness: A Doctor's Thoughts on the Importance of Empathy
John A. Farrell on How Ted Kennedy Became a Great Man When He Was Most Distanced From the U.S. Presidency
Mae Ngai on The Chinese Question: Gold Rushes, Migration, and the Global Politics and Economics of Race
Cody Keenan on Ten Days in June: On a Pivotal Moment in Barack Obama's "Battle" for America
Daniel Drache: Has Populism Won? Must Democratic Politics, on Both Left and Right, Be Populist Now?
Orly Lobel: Can Digital Technology Can Be Harnessed to Realize Equality, Inclusion, and a Brighter Future?
David Sax: Why, If We Want to Create a More Human World, the Future Must Be Analog
Jonathan Clegg on Messi, Ronaldo, and the Radical Remaking of the World's Game Over the Last 20 Years
Katie Hickman on Neither Heroines Nor Villains: The Brave-Hearted Women Who Settled the American West
Joseph Sassoon on A History of the Sassoons—One of the World's Great Global Merchant Families
Becca Andrews: How the Destruction of Roe v. Wade Undermines Fundamental American Rights
Vladislav M. Zubok on the Soviet Union Might Be Dead, But the Consequences of Its Disastrous Collapse Continue to Haunt Us