Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Gary Marcus is amongst the world’s leading skeptics on the AI revolution. So it’s worth taking note when Marcus admits that “of course we are getting to AGI eventually”. No, he says, artificial general intelligence (AGI) won’t take place in 2027 or perhaps even 2050. But it will happen, he confidently predicts, by 2100. So that only underlines Marcus’ argument, made in his acclaimed 2024 book Taming Silicon Valley, of the desperate need to regulate AI before it regulates us. And it also contextualizes our short term preoccupation with corporate pioneers of generative AI technology like OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind and xAI. As Marcus argues, it’s likely that the dominant AI technology that will get us to AGI by the end of the 21st century hasn’t even been invented yet.
Gary Marcus is a leading voice in artificial intelligence, well known for his challenges to contemporary AI. He is a scientist and best-selling author and was founder and CEO of Geometric.AI, a machine learning company acquired by Uber. A Professor Emeritus at NYU, he is the author of five previous books, including the bestseller Guitar Zero, Kluge (one of The Economist's eight best books on the brain and consciousness), and Rebooting AI (with Ernest Davis), one of Forbes's seven must-read books on AI.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Jeff Kosseff: What Exactly Is Section 230 and Why Was It So Essential in the Creation of the Internet?
Rick Wartzman on Why Are Walmart Workers Still Broke? The Limits of a "Socially Conscious" American Capitalism That Still Won't Pay Its Employees a Living Wage
Matthew Campbell on Dead in the Water: The True Story of a Fake Hijacking and a Real Murder
Andrew Small on A Cold War Without Limits: The Chilling Story of China's Rupture With the West
Neal Gabler on You Don't Need to Be a Weatherman to Know Which Way the Wind Blows: Ted Kennedy and the Rise of American Conservatism
Lucas Joppa: Why Both Government and Private Corporations Have Essential Roles in Confronting Global Warming
Jessica Todd Harper: Why Photography Can Be Fine Art and What Photographers Should Learn From Vermeer and Other 17th Century Dutch Artists
Isaac Stone Fish on America Second: Is It Really Possible That America's Elites Are Making China Stronger?
Daphne E. Jones on a Note to Donald Trump: This Is How to Become a Real Winner
Andrew Anagnost: How the Moral Sickness Afflicting Silicon Valley Might Be a Pandemic of Egoism
Peter Rawlinson: The Truth About Battery-Powered and Self-Driving Cars From the Engineer Who Invented the Tesla Model S and the Lucid Air
Edward J. Delaney on Cary Grant as The Acrobat: A Novel About the Hollywood Comic Star Whose Best Joke Was That He Didn't Really Exist
Andrew S. Weiss on Super Unhero: Vladimir Putin, the Accidental Czar, Imagined Graphically