Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Gary Marcus is amongst the world’s leading skeptics on the AI revolution. So it’s worth taking note when Marcus admits that “of course we are getting to AGI eventually”. No, he says, artificial general intelligence (AGI) won’t take place in 2027 or perhaps even 2050. But it will happen, he confidently predicts, by 2100. So that only underlines Marcus’ argument, made in his acclaimed 2024 book Taming Silicon Valley, of the desperate need to regulate AI before it regulates us. And it also contextualizes our short term preoccupation with corporate pioneers of generative AI technology like OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind and xAI. As Marcus argues, it’s likely that the dominant AI technology that will get us to AGI by the end of the 21st century hasn’t even been invented yet.
Gary Marcus is a leading voice in artificial intelligence, well known for his challenges to contemporary AI. He is a scientist and best-selling author and was founder and CEO of Geometric.AI, a machine learning company acquired by Uber. A Professor Emeritus at NYU, he is the author of five previous books, including the bestseller Guitar Zero, Kluge (one of The Economist's eight best books on the brain and consciousness), and Rebooting AI (with Ernest Davis), one of Forbes's seven must-read books on AI.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
American Whitelash: Wesley Lowery on the cost of progress in an increasingly multiracial America
The American Dream of a "Tossed Salad": Luma Mufleh on reconciling her identity as a gay Muslim woman with an Arab-turned-American refugee
The 20th Century Corporation: Richard Langlois on the cultural and economic history of the modern American business enterprise
Pricing the Priceless: Paula DiPerna on how to quantify the planet and solve the climate crisis
Why 80% Isn't Good Enough: Matt Higgins imagines how the publishing industry and writers will be impacted by the coming AI storm
The Middle Eastern Maze: Itamar Rabinovich on Israel, the Palestinians and an inglorious seventy-five year history of mostly failed peace initiatives
A Teacher's Journey: Adam Bessie's graphically dystopian take on education in the digital age of COVID and AI
Fireworks Every Night: Beth Raymer on her delightfully delusional father, male homelessness and why Florida "just is America"
The End of the Game: Roger Ballen on the existential ecological psychodrama of the destruction of African wildlife
Becoming Fully Me: Bethanne Patrick about how she escaped her double depression and wrote a memoir about it
Notes from a Black Man in the Natural World: Christian Cooper on birding, the flight of freedom and how we must positively bend the arc of justice
Why Big Tech is Getting Even Bigger: Keith Teare on how the biggest tech companies now control our economic and political fates
From Queer to Gay to Queer: James Kirchick on why he believes the theory of "queerness" is a "parasite" on the gay rights movement