Everything Is Possible, Nothing Is Inevitable: Why AI Might Be the Ultimate Scarcity Trap
Is the promise of AI abundance Silicon Valley’s biggest lie? That Was The Week publisher Keith Teare argues that while AI will inevitably reduce human labor and increase productivity, the real question isn't economic—it's about distribution. Who, exactly, benefits from all this abundance? Currently, it’s private companies like OpenAI and Google that own the technology; not you and I, the public. This creates what Keith describes as a fork in the road: either a techno-feudal nightmare where few own everything, or a techno-socialist cornucopia where everyone prospers. He points to points to experiments like Sam Altman's Worldcoin as potential solutions, but warns that without deliberate human action, abundance could easily become the ultimate scarcity trap.
As you can tell from this conversation, I'm much more skeptical than Keith. While he sees inevitable productivity gains leading to a potential utopia, I see Silicon Valley's promises of abudance as largely self-serving fantasy. There is no fork in the road and, with or without human agency, everything certainly isn’t possible. Today’s technological reality is growing inequality, not infinite distribution. The fact that Keith's most hopeful model is Sam Altman's chilling crypto scheme for paying people to scan and share their irises is particularly unconvincing. History shows us that new technologies, while promising a cornucopian future, always create new forms of scarcity. The people promoting AI abundance—Zuckerberg, Musk, Altman et al—are painfully antisocial, yet preach about more social time for family and friends. Meanwhile, teachers and journalists and lawyers are already being forced into retirement. Without concrete mechanisms for the redistribution of AI derived wealth, abundance will likely benefit the few who own the technology, not the many who actually need it.
five key takeaways
1. The Economics vs. Distribution Problem AI will inevitably make production cheaper and more efficient, but there's no built-in mechanism ensuring everyone benefits. The proceeds will flow to private companies unless something changes.
2. The Fork in the Road We face two possible futures: a feudal system where a few own everything, or a utopia where abundance benefits everyone. The outcome depends entirely on human choices, not technological inevitability.
3. The End of Required Labor While productivity gains are inevitable, the complete elimination of paid work isn't guaranteed. But as AI becomes cheaper than human labor, employers will have no economic incentive to hire people.
4. Democrats Need the Abundance Narrative The Democratic Party can't win by just redistributing a shrinking pie. They need policies that grow the economy and make abundance politically viable—free healthcare and education require rapid wealth expansion.
5. Experiments Are Already Happening Projects like Sam Altman's Worldcoin (giving everyone AI profits via crypto) and discussions of Universal Income show that practical wealth distribution mechanisms are being tested, not just theorized.
Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
The Purple Presidency 2024: C. Owen Paepke on how voters can reclaim the White House for "bipartisan" governance
Things You Wanted to Say But Never Did: Geloy Concepcion on his confessional photographic journal on Instagram
The Datapreneurs: Bob Muglia on why we should trust the promise of AI and its creators to build a better human future
Against Nostalgia: Mark Lilla on why progressives should reject nostalgia in thinking about both the past and future
In this regular weekly show with THAT WAS THE WEEK newsletter author Keith Teare, Andrew and Keith discuss why Keith was wrong in last week's show about Apple's new Vision Pro and how this revolutionary device might once again change everything
A Radical Amerikan Family: Santi Elijah Holley on the Shakurs - from the Black Panthers to Tupac
The Good Enough Job: Simone Stolzoff on how to reclaim our life from work
The Three Ages of Water: Peter Gleick on the prehistoric past, imperiled present and hopeful future of water
My Hijacking: Martha Hodes on her memoir of forgetting
Imagine a City: Mark Vanhoenacker writes a love letter from the sky to the world's greatest cities
As Rich as a Digital Croesus: Trevor Traina imagines a super app in which we can store all our Web3 data
In Defense of Big Girls: Mecca Jamilah Sullivan asks whether the American Republic was founded on anti-fat people principles
The Overlooked Americans: Elizabeth Currid-Halkett on the resilience of rural America and it means for the future of the country