Everything Is Possible, Nothing Is Inevitable: Why AI Might Be the Ultimate Scarcity Trap
Is the promise of AI abundance Silicon Valley’s biggest lie? That Was The Week publisher Keith Teare argues that while AI will inevitably reduce human labor and increase productivity, the real question isn't economic—it's about distribution. Who, exactly, benefits from all this abundance? Currently, it’s private companies like OpenAI and Google that own the technology; not you and I, the public. This creates what Keith describes as a fork in the road: either a techno-feudal nightmare where few own everything, or a techno-socialist cornucopia where everyone prospers. He points to points to experiments like Sam Altman's Worldcoin as potential solutions, but warns that without deliberate human action, abundance could easily become the ultimate scarcity trap.
As you can tell from this conversation, I'm much more skeptical than Keith. While he sees inevitable productivity gains leading to a potential utopia, I see Silicon Valley's promises of abudance as largely self-serving fantasy. There is no fork in the road and, with or without human agency, everything certainly isn’t possible. Today’s technological reality is growing inequality, not infinite distribution. The fact that Keith's most hopeful model is Sam Altman's chilling crypto scheme for paying people to scan and share their irises is particularly unconvincing. History shows us that new technologies, while promising a cornucopian future, always create new forms of scarcity. The people promoting AI abundance—Zuckerberg, Musk, Altman et al—are painfully antisocial, yet preach about more social time for family and friends. Meanwhile, teachers and journalists and lawyers are already being forced into retirement. Without concrete mechanisms for the redistribution of AI derived wealth, abundance will likely benefit the few who own the technology, not the many who actually need it.
five key takeaways
1. The Economics vs. Distribution Problem AI will inevitably make production cheaper and more efficient, but there's no built-in mechanism ensuring everyone benefits. The proceeds will flow to private companies unless something changes.
2. The Fork in the Road We face two possible futures: a feudal system where a few own everything, or a utopia where abundance benefits everyone. The outcome depends entirely on human choices, not technological inevitability.
3. The End of Required Labor While productivity gains are inevitable, the complete elimination of paid work isn't guaranteed. But as AI becomes cheaper than human labor, employers will have no economic incentive to hire people.
4. Democrats Need the Abundance Narrative The Democratic Party can't win by just redistributing a shrinking pie. They need policies that grow the economy and make abundance politically viable—free healthcare and education require rapid wealth expansion.
5. Experiments Are Already Happening Projects like Sam Altman's Worldcoin (giving everyone AI profits via crypto) and discussions of Universal Income show that practical wealth distribution mechanisms are being tested, not just theorized.
Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
The Heartbeat of the Wild: David Quammen's conservationist manifesto from landscapes of wonder, peril and hope
Do You Dream of Electric Sheep? Jordan Crandall on the appropriate literature for our new age of superintelligence
That Was The Week in Tech: Keith Teare predicts a failed Apple virtual reality headset but is more bullish on Twitter's reinvention as X
Message on an Envelope: Stephen Games rethinks the publishing industry by reimagining books as postcards
The 7 Deadly Myths: Alex Ryvchin on antisemitism from the time of Christ to Kanye West and the Ashburton Army
The Wounded World: Chad Williams on W.E.B. Du Bois and the First World World
Anything but Halycon: Elliot Ackerman imagines an America of President Al Gore in which there is technology that can resurrect dead people
Our Kids Will Ask Us What We Did: Skye Perryman explains why she is fighting to save American democracy
Like the Appearance of Horses: Andrew Krivak on war, language, memory and why ChatGPT will never understand beauty
The World as a Big Book Club: David Blake explains the resiliency of the physical book and why he is cautiously optimistic about the impact of AI on both publishing and storytelling
Carry Strong: Stephanie Kramer offers an empowered approach to navigating pregnancy and work
Talking Turkey: Soli Özel makes sense of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's return to political power
How to Scale Trust: David Samson on making tribes and tribalism work in the 21st century