The Best (and Worst) Bets on Midterm Races (with Evan Scrimshaw)

The Trump administration is looking for a new ICE director, which at this point might qualify as one of the least appealing jobs in American politics. Todd Lyons is heading for the private sector at the end of the month, and whoever replaces him is walking straight into a political minefield. ICE is under pressure from every direction at once, criticism over aggressive raids, backlash tied to the Minnesota shootings, scrutiny around deaths in custody, and a White House that still wants to project toughness on immigration without constantly relitigating the most politically toxic parts of enforcement.

What’s interesting is that the administration does not seem eager to escalate things even further. The expectation appears to be more continuity than confrontation, likely with a heavier focus on cases involving gangs, fraud, and violent offenders rather than the kind of broad raids that dominate cable news. But that still leaves the core problem unresolved. The administration wants someone who can satisfy the base without constantly creating politically damaging optics, and there are not many people eager to occupy that awkward middle ground.

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Susan Collins Tries to Get Ahead of the Age Question

Susan Collins is trying to get in front of a political problem before it grows into something larger. After online attention focused on the visible shaking in her campaign announcement video, Collins revealed that she has a benign essential tremor that she’s managed throughout her Senate career with medication. Doctors say the condition is not tied to cognitive decline, but politically, the challenge is making sure voters hear that explanation before opponents define the issue for her.

That matters because Graham Plattner’s core argument is built around generational contrast. He wants the race to be about old versus new, establishment versus change. Collins, meanwhile, would much rather make the election about experience and steadiness, especially if the alternative is a candidate dealing with his own controversies over judgment and seriousness. By addressing the tremor directly now, she’s trying to keep the focus from drifting entirely onto age and energy, which is exactly where Plattner wants it.

The Epstein Story Refuses to Disappear

A federal judge unsealing a purported Jeffrey Epstein suicide note is the latest reminder that this story never really leaves the public imagination, even when there’s very little genuinely new information involved. The note is undated, partially illegible, and unverified, but none of that stops it from immediately generating another wave of speculation. At this point, almost any document tied to Epstein automatically becomes a cultural event online, regardless of whether it actually changes the known facts.

Part of the reason is the source itself. The note came through Epstein’s former cellmate Nicholas Tartaglione, a convicted murderer who has become a recurring figure in the broader Epstein mythology. That combination of sensational claims, unreliable narrators, and public distrust keeps the story alive indefinitely. Even when official investigations conclude one thing, there remains a huge appetite for alternative explanations, hidden details, and unresolved questions, which is why the Epstein saga never really seems to end.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:19 - Gasoline

00:07:00 - Political Betting Odds with Evan Scrimshaw

00:32:38 - ICE Director

00:34:36 - Susan Collins

00:37:03 - Epstein

00:39:08 - Political Betting Odds with Evan Scrimshaw, con’t

01:10:46 - Wrap-up and Ted Turner Thoughts