Episode 119 - The difference between prediction and explanation in business

Episode 119 - The difference between prediction and explanation in business

Author: Bart Vanderhaegen April 17, 2022 Duration: 16:24

We want to change in companies: from any current state to any new state (goals/ objectives). We need 2 things for that: a prediction (of the goal we want to reach) and an explanation for how to actually reach it (current state, actions, decisions, milestones, issues, ...)

We focus on predictions too much : the goals in and of themselves / plus the KPIs to show how far we are away from the goals, the rewards when reching the goal, the importance of the goal, ...

What is more important is to have good explanations for how to reach goals

  • For people to reach goals they need to know how. You can’t reach it without knowhow

And criticisms to improve those explanations

There are however still good and bad explanations

Bad explanations: “If you take your responsibility, you will reach the goal”

  • It is close to true but a bad explanation, it doesn’t explain how the goal will be reached

Good explanations: clear plans, with real-time updates whenever you learn from criticisms

  • Either from trying something or aligning/ correcting something in the plan before trying it out

The real knowledge is in the explanations, not in the goals not in the KPIs

Recommendations:

  • Explanations should get more time
  • Explanations should be written down (apart from all the goals and KPIs that are already transparant)
  • Criticism instead of seeking support for your explanation

Bart Vanderhaegen hosts Rapid Idea Improvement, a podcast that digs into a powerful and practical question: how do ideas actually get better? Instead of staying in the abstract, it applies the principles of knowledge growth-particularly those from thinkers like Karl Popper and David Deutsch-to the messy, real-world domains of business, management, and economics, while also reaching into fields like physics for broader insight. Each episode is an exploration of critical rationalism in action, examining how we can systematically criticize and refine our thinking to solve problems more effectively. You’ll hear discussions that treat business challenges not as puzzles with fixed answers, but as opportunities for evolutionary idea improvement, where bold conjectures and rigorous error-correction drive progress. This isn't about motivational tips or surface-level analysis; it's about building a deeper framework for understanding how knowledge expands, and then using that framework to make your own thinking more potent and adaptable. The conversations in this podcast are for anyone who suspects that the way we approach problems-in leadership, strategy, or innovation-can be fundamentally upgraded. By weaving together epistemology with practical application, the show aims to provide listeners with a genuinely useful toolkit for accelerating the development of their most important ideas.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

Rapid Idea Improvement
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