Episode 31: The trouble with meta-analysis

Episode 31: The trouble with meta-analysis

Author: Tom Chivers and Stuart Ritchie March 19, 2024 Duration: 1:09:35

We all love to cite meta-analyses. They’re the review studies where scientists take every single piece of research ever published on a particular question, and then calculate the overall “true” effect across all of them. Putting together all those studies is a much better way to get to the truth… isn’t it?

In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart give a intro to meta-analysis, and then talk about several major problems with the whole idea. Is meta-analysis—relied upon for making so many important scientific decisions, and cited in so many of our previous episodes—in serious need of a rethink?

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Show notes

* Slide show from the Cochrane Collaboration on the basics of meta-analysis

* Description of the GRADE guidelines for assessing study quality

* Below is a funnel plot, a method of testing for publication bias in meta-analysis. Source: we asked an AI to randomly generate some data and display it in a funnel plot, just for illustration. This funnel plot is relatively symmetrical and probably wouldn’t indicate much publication bias:

* Criticism of funnel plots; Nature news reporting on the criticism

* Stuart’s Substack article on the homeopathy meta-analysis (and the retraction note for that meta-analysis)

* The PET-PEESE technique for meta-analysis; and a criticism of it

* Useful paper that compares between different bias-correction methods for meta-analysis

* The p-curve website, which has the paper explaining the technique and a useful app where you can do your own p-curve

* Stuart’s Substack article on the meta-analysis on “nudges”

* Further criticism of the nudge meta-analysis, with important points about “meaningless means” (and yet more criticism)

Credits

The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

Every week, Tom Chivers and Stuart Ritchie pull apart the biggest arguments and most confusing claims making headlines. Science Fictions isn't just about celebrating breakthroughs; it's a necessary dive into the messy, contested, and often surprising realities of how science actually works. You'll hear them unpack heated debates, examine questionable studies, and explore why even solid research can sometimes lead to public confusion. This podcast serves as a guide through the noise, separating compelling evidence from overblown narratives. Each episode feels like a conversation with two deeply informed friends who aren't afraid to ask tough questions, offering clarity on topics that matter. For anyone curious about the stories behind the science headlines, this is an essential listen. Tune in for thoughtful analysis that goes beyond the press release, grounded in a genuine fascination with how we know what we know.
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