Episode 71: The autism epidemic

Episode 71: The autism epidemic

Author: Tom Chivers and Stuart Ritchie April 29, 2025 Duration: 54:31

The Studies Show LIVE (with special guest Jesse Singal) is next Friday, 9th of May, at Conway Hall in London. Get your tickets right HERE! Or go to bit.ly/tss_live.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. can’t be wrong about literally everything, can he? His latest controversial statement is that he wants to find the “environmental exposure” that has been causing the huge spike in autism rates over the past few decades.

In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart look into whether there really is an autism epidemic in the first place—and if there isn’t, why the diagnoses might be going up so quickly anyway.

The Studies Show is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine. This week we discussed the article from the most recent issue about the UK’s land value tax—a cautionary tale of a policy that might sound good on paper, but was utterly cursed in practice. Find this and so many more fascinating articles about human progress at worksinprogress.co.

Show notes

* RFK Jr’s latest claims about autism (and his plans to gather data)

* His statement “I believe autism comes from vaccines”, from 2023

* His “Children’s Health Defence” org from 2015

* CDC data on autism rates in the US

* And similar data from the UK

* A paper on the much lower rates in 1966

* “Early infantile autism” - the original 1944 paper by Leo Kanner

* Hans Asperger’s similarly-timed research

* And on his collaboration with the Nazis

* On “refrigerator mothers

* Data from after the MMR vaccine was split in Yokohama, Japan

* The DSM-V checklist for autism spectrum disorder

* Scott Alexander’s controversial piece “Against against autism cures

* 2023 paper on the prevalence of profound autism

* Article on the growing waiting lists for autism diagnoses

* More details on the same

* 2022 paper on the genetics of autism

* Article on rates of extra time in exams in the UK

* Adam Hunt’s post about Renée Thornton, hot-air balloonist

* The Economist’s Bagehot column on the “tyranny of turning up”

* Underdiagnosed autism in girls

Credits

We’re grateful to Adam Hunt for talking to us about psychiatric diagnoses for this episode. The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

Every week, Tom Chivers and Stuart Ritchie pull apart the biggest arguments and most confusing claims making headlines. Science Fictions isn't just about celebrating breakthroughs; it's a necessary dive into the messy, contested, and often surprising realities of how science actually works. You'll hear them unpack heated debates, examine questionable studies, and explore why even solid research can sometimes lead to public confusion. This podcast serves as a guide through the noise, separating compelling evidence from overblown narratives. Each episode feels like a conversation with two deeply informed friends who aren't afraid to ask tough questions, offering clarity on topics that matter. For anyone curious about the stories behind the science headlines, this is an essential listen. Tune in for thoughtful analysis that goes beyond the press release, grounded in a genuine fascination with how we know what we know.
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