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Oil, War, and the Strait of Hormuz: What current events look like through the eyes of an energy trader

Oil, War, and the Strait of Hormuz: What current events look like through the eyes of an energy trader

Author: RCM Alternatives April 2, 2026 Duration: 48:25
The Derivative
BusinessInvesting

In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with returning “resident oil guy” Brent Belote of Cayler Capital to unpack one of the wildest stretches in energy markets since COVID and Russia/Ukraine. They dig into recent oil volatility, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and why the Straits of Hormuz still matter more than most people think. Brent breaks down how traders are actually navigating this market, from tracking physical flows to managing extreme option volatility, and what could come next. Jeff and Brent also explore how EV adoption, data centers, and grid constraints collide with the energy transition narrative, and what “up $50” or even “up $100” oil scenarios actually look like from a real risk perspective. SEND IT!


Chapters:

00:00-01:18=Intro

01:19-04:08= Fluky Winter: Snow, Melt, and the Tetons’ Weird Season

04:09-18:24= Israel/Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the New Oil Shock

18:25-29:55= Closing Hormuz? Tail-Risk Scenarios, Oil Volatility, and $150 Crude

29:56-37:49= Oil’s Binary Future: Hormuz Off-Ramps, $150 Risk, and 24/7 Prediction Markets

37:50-48:25= Beyond Peak Oil: Shale, Venezuela, EV Myths, and an All-of-the-Above Energy Future


From the Episode:

Whitepaper- A Crude Awakening:  How Oil Prices Ripple Through the Global Economy 

Crude Oil goes Negative… What^%$# on The Derivative


OpenSnow’s Joel Gratz built a Pod Shop for Powder Days: the PMs are Meteorologists and the Returns are Faceshots


Going Nuclear: How Uranium is Powering Portfolios with Trevor Hall & Justin Huhn


Follow along with Brent at LinkedIn and on X @brentbelote - be sure to check out Cayler Capital on LinkedIn and at caylercapital.com

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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠



For investors looking beyond the traditional stock and bond markets, The Derivative offers a deep and practical exploration of the alternative investment landscape. Hosted by RCM Managing Partner Jeff Malec, this podcast demystifies complex strategies and brings listeners directly into conversations with the hedge fund managers and specialized investors who navigate these unique asset classes. Each episode breaks down the mechanics, risks, and opportunities behind non-traditional investments, from managed futures and private equity to niche market strategies. The discussions are grounded in real-world analysis, moving beyond theory to examine what actually drives performance and strategy in this dynamic corner of finance. By focusing on the people and ideas shaping the field, The Derivative provides an insider's perspective that is both educational and actionable. Listeners gain a clearer understanding of portfolio diversification and the tactical approaches used by professional fund managers. This podcast serves as a valuable resource for anyone seeking to comprehend the broader, often opaque world of alternatives, delivered through straightforward dialogue and expert commentary. Tune in for a focused and insightful ride through the strategies that define alternative investing.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

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