Oil, War, and the Strait of Hormuz: What current events look like through the eyes of an energy trader

In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with returning “resident oil guy” Brent Belote of Cayler Capital to unpack one of the wildest stretches in energy markets since COVID and Russia/Ukraine. They dig into recent oil volatility, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and why the Straits of Hormuz still matter more than most people think. Brent breaks down how traders are actually navigating this market, from tracking physical flows to managing extreme option volatility, and what could come next. Jeff and Brent also explore how EV adoption, data centers, and grid constraints collide with the energy transition narrative, and what “up $50” or even “up $100” oil scenarios actually look like from a real risk perspective. SEND IT!

Chapters:

00:00-01:18=Intro

01:19-04:08= Fluky Winter: Snow, Melt, and the Tetons’ Weird Season

04:09-18:24= Israel/Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the New Oil Shock

18:25-29:55= Closing Hormuz? Tail-Risk Scenarios, Oil Volatility, and $150 Crude

29:56-37:49= Oil’s Binary Future: Hormuz Off-Ramps, $150 Risk, and 24/7 Prediction Markets

37:50-48:25= Beyond Peak Oil: Shale, Venezuela, EV Myths, and an All-of-the-Above Energy Future

From the Episode:

Whitepaper- A Crude Awakening:  How Oil Prices Ripple Through the Global Economy 

Crude Oil goes Negative… What^%$# on The Derivative

OpenSnow’s Joel Gratz built a Pod Shop for Powder Days: the PMs are Meteorologists and the Returns are Faceshots

Going Nuclear: How Uranium is Powering Portfolios with Trevor Hall & Justin Huhn

Follow along with Brent at LinkedIn and on X @brentbelote - be sure to check out Cayler Capital on LinkedIn and at caylercapital.com

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