Jason Altmire and Riley Burr, co-authors of Trade Up, break down why the skilled trades pipeline is broken — and the fix isn't just more people, it's better retention.
The math doesn't work: the number of Americans over 65 grows 3% every year while the under-18 population shrinks 0.2% annually, and there are already 15% fewer kids in kindergarten than there are high school seniors. That gap keeps widening until at least 2041. At the exact same time, record numbers of college graduates can't find jobs while record numbers of employers can't fill open trades roles — a paradox Jason and Riley unpack in detail, alongside a catch-22 most people never talk about: trade school graduates being locked out of entry-level jobs because employers demand three to five years of experience they have no way to get.
Jason Altmire is President and CEO of Career Education Colleges and Universities (CECU), the national trade association for private postsecondary career schools, and a former three-term member of the U.S. House of Representatives. Riley Burr is Executive Director of the CECU Research Foundation and VP of Policy and Research at CECU, with a background authoring federal workforce and education reports. Together they wrote Trade Up: Why the Future Belongs to Skilled Trades and How Career Education is Transforming the Workforce — a data-driven look at the "Toolbelt Generation" and the systems failing to connect willing workers to open jobs.
This episode is for parents trying to guide a kid toward a real career path, Gen Z workers weighing trade school against a four-year degree, employers struggling with 90-day attrition, and anyone who wants the actual data behind the skilled trades shortage instead of the headlines.
IN THIS EPISODE
(00:00) – The impossible math: Jason and Riley explain why an aging population and a shrinking youth pipeline make the skilled trades shortage a demographic problem, not just a recruiting problem.
(08:00) – The zero-experience catch-22: why trade school graduates with the right soft skills keep getting rejected for lacking three to five years of experience, and what "qualified applicant" actually means to employers.
(16:00) – Broken pipelines: guidance counselors who only know how to advise for college, a state charter trade school with a random lottery, and why parents don't know how to steer kids toward the trades even when they want to.
(26:00) – Women in welding and the power of visibility: why only 5% of the skilled trades workforce is women, but 32 of the top 50 welding accounts on Instagram are run by women — and what that means for recruitment.
(36:00) – Data centers, AI, and job security: why Microsoft's research shows blue-collar trades have the lowest task-replacement risk from AI, and why data center construction is reshaping pay and poaching in the trades.
(46:00) – Mentorship builds the tradesperson: why most attrition happens in the first 90 days, and why "apprenticeship teaches the trade, mentorship builds the tradesperson."
Key Takeaways
The skilled trades shortage is a demographic math problem first: the population over 65 grows 3% a year, the population under 18 shrinks 0.2% a year, and that gap keeps widening until at least 2041.
Many employers create their own shortage by demanding three to five years of experience from trade school graduates, locking out qualified candidates in a catch-22 they can't work their way out of.
Retention lives or dies in the first 90 days on the job, and mentorship — not just apprenticeship — is the single biggest factor tradespeople point to when asked what changed their career trajectory.
AI poses far less risk to skilled trades work than to white-collar jobs — Microsoft's task-replacement research shows blue-collar roles have the lowest automation exposure of any job category tracked.
About the Guest
Dr. Jason Altmire is President and CEO of Career Education Colleges and Universities (CECU), the national trade association representing private postsecondary career schools. He previously served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives (2007–2013) and has led senior roles in the hospital and health insurance industries. Since joining CECU in 2020, he has grown the association's membership, revenue, and media reach, including launching CECU's research foundation.
Riley Burr is Executive Director of the CECU Research Foundation and Vice President of Policy and Research at CECU. She previously served as lead author and contributor on federal workforce reports for the National Center for Education Statistics, with research focused on bridging the skills gap and expanding the role of trade schools. Jason and Riley co-authored Trade Up, drawing on that research to map out how career education is transforming the American workforce.
Keywords
skilled trades workforce shortage, trades pipeline crisis, skilled trades career pathways, trade school vs college, registered apprenticeships, career and technical education, HVAC career, electrician apprenticeship, welding career, plumbing trade, aviation maintenance technician, women in the trades, Gen Z workforce, Toolbelt Generation, mentorship in the trades, workforce retention, AI and blue collar jobs, data center construction jobs, Jason Altmire, Riley Burr, Trade Up book, Career Education Colleges and Universities, CECU Research Foundation, Andrew Brown, The Lost Art of the Skilled Trades
RESOURCE LINKS
Jason Altmire on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonaltmire/
Riley Burr on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rileyburr/
Trade Up (book): https://tradeupbook.com/
Career Education Colleges and Universities (CECU): https://career.org
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