Why Is Powell Ignoring "Animal Spirits"

Why Is Powell Ignoring "Animal Spirits"

Author: Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly February 19, 2023 Duration: 39:17
On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas reflect on the first six weeks of 2023. As most investors anticipated recessionary pressures in H1, and for markets to head lower, so far "animal spirits" persist, economic data remains strong and markets refuse to budge. Finally, Alf & Andreas share their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/macrotradingfloor *26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Why Is The Data So Strong? (07:21) All Eyes On Liquidity (10:54) Are 50bps Back On The Table? (20:59) Animal Spirits Are Back (28:23) “Public Ad” (28:55) What Is Happening With Energy? (30:38) Actionable Trade Ideas -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly bring the high-stakes energy of a dealing room straight to your headphones with The Macro Trading Floor. This isn't a dry lecture on economic theory; it's a dynamic conversation where complex global themes-from central bank decisions and inflation trends to geopolitical shifts and technological disruptions-are translated into clear market language. You'll hear their unfiltered analysis and genuine back-and-forth, which often leads to specific, actionable ideas for navigating currencies, bonds, and equities. The discussion naturally spans business, investing, and news, reflecting the hosts' own trading-floor mentality where all information is connected. Tune in for a blend of seasoned perspective and lively debate that makes understanding the forces moving your money both engaging and practical. Each episode of this podcast feels like getting a direct feed from two experts who are as focused on the "why" behind market moves as they are on the potential opportunities those moves create.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

The Macro Trading Floor
Podcast Episodes
Financial Repression Is Here To Stay [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 38:06
Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses…
What If The Fed Made a Mistake? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 39:27
Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be…
Macro Risks On The Horizon [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 34:33
EXCLUSIVE DISCOUNT TO ALF & BRENT CONFERENCE https://www.spectramarkets.com/macro-roadmap-2025/ Use the coupon TMTF to get $200 OFF. Only for the first 100 users - first come, first serve! -------------------------------…
Unpacking The Chinese Stimulus Bazooka [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:35
The Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired. Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal s…
How To Trade The Fed Cutting Cycle [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 35:50
Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on…
The World is Different Now [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 41:14
Alf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences…
Will The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:45
Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakn…
How & When The Best Macro Investors Use Options [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 40:10
In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They th…
A Tale of Crowded Macro Trades [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:22
Alf and Brent reflect on the immense volatility hitting markets recently, and specifically on the unwind of carry trades: are we done here or is there more to come? Most importantly, they describe how to design and apply…
Macro Mayhem! [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 39:38
Alf and Brent reflect on the massive bond market rally and the explosive move in the Japanese Yen - what’s next for macro? To contact Alf: send him an email at info@palinurocapital.com or contact him on Bloomberg (Alfons…