Why Is Powell Ignoring "Animal Spirits"

Why Is Powell Ignoring "Animal Spirits"

Author: Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly February 19, 2023 Duration: 39:17
On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas reflect on the first six weeks of 2023. As most investors anticipated recessionary pressures in H1, and for markets to head lower, so far "animal spirits" persist, economic data remains strong and markets refuse to budge. Finally, Alf & Andreas share their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/macrotradingfloor *26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Why Is The Data So Strong? (07:21) All Eyes On Liquidity (10:54) Are 50bps Back On The Table? (20:59) Animal Spirits Are Back (28:23) “Public Ad” (28:55) What Is Happening With Energy? (30:38) Actionable Trade Ideas -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly bring the high-stakes energy of a dealing room straight to your headphones with The Macro Trading Floor. This isn't a dry lecture on economic theory; it's a dynamic conversation where complex global themes-from central bank decisions and inflation trends to geopolitical shifts and technological disruptions-are translated into clear market language. You'll hear their unfiltered analysis and genuine back-and-forth, which often leads to specific, actionable ideas for navigating currencies, bonds, and equities. The discussion naturally spans business, investing, and news, reflecting the hosts' own trading-floor mentality where all information is connected. Tune in for a blend of seasoned perspective and lively debate that makes understanding the forces moving your money both engaging and practical. Each episode of this podcast feels like getting a direct feed from two experts who are as focused on the "why" behind market moves as they are on the potential opportunities those moves create.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

The Macro Trading Floor
Podcast Episodes
Option Markets Are Eating The World [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:49
In this episode, Alf invites Cem Karsan to discuss what's going on in option markets. Cem does a great job at explaining what's the dispersion trade, how big it has become, and how it might unwind wreaking havoc across a…
What Powell Really Meant [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 39:32
A big macro week is behind us: the combination of CPI and PPI releases provide us with solid information on where the disinflation trend stands. Alf and Brent also discuss Powell’s press conference + change in dots and t…
Risk Management Principles [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 38:25
Alf and Brent discuss the ECB and Bank of Canada cuts, and reflect on the big bond market moves seen recently coupled with carry trade implosions. The discussion focuses around risk management principles to prevent bad l…
Don't Make This Mistake [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 28:31
Free Trial to Alf's Institutional Research? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg for more info! In this podcast, Alf invites Peter Farac (aka @countdraghula on Twitter) to the show. Peter brings a wealth of experience r…
How Macro Traders Navigate Uncertainties [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:08
Want to meet Alf and Brent in person?! Fill in this 30-second survey so we can make this happen: https://www.eSurveysPro.com/Survey.aspx?id=ad4fe049-95b7-40ef-a46b-f1bdc509b256 In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how…
How To Trade Macro Now? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 35:42
(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!) Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue…
Early Signs of Weakness [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:46
The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well. Is the market ready for a regime switch? Alf and Bren…
A New Fed Put? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:24
Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this s…
A Contrarian Macro Thesis [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:59
US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thes…
What if Hikes are Stimulative?! [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:36
The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every C…