Airtable's 80% off value crash: VCs explain why it's still a win | E2321

This Week In Startups is made possible by: Vanta https://www.vanta.com/twist Agree https://agree.com Odoo https://Odoo.com/twist Today's show: *Airtable just sold for $2.25 billion, an 81% drop from its peak of $11.7 billion. On this week's TWiST VC Roundtable, Aditya Agarwal (South Park Commons), Niko Bonatsos (Verdict Capital), and Rick Heitzmann (FirstMark Capital) break down why the venture world sees this as a good outcome, not a financial disaster. By declining the deal, would Airtable's team have just been delaying the inevitable? Is the fact that they reached $400M+ ARR on its own a reason to celebrate? Find out why our investor panel prefers unwinding a stuck situation rather than chasing a growth rate that's no longer sustainable. PLUS Robinhood's booming prediction market business, the secondary market flap over Anduril shares, why so many VCs shy away from "vice" categories, and a glimpse at how insiders are talking about the Apple-OpenAI lawsuit. Guests Aditya Agarwal on X: https://x.com/adityaag South Park Commons: https://www.southparkcommons.com/apply Niko Bonatsos on X: https://x.com/bonatsos Verdict Capital: https://verdictcap.com/ Rick Heitzmann on X: https://x.com/rick FirstMark Capital: https://firstmark.com/ Relevant Links Airtable: https://www.airtable.com/ Bending Spoons announces Airtable acquisition: https://investors.bendingspoons.com/newsroom/bending-spoons-agrees-to-acquire-airtable Constellation Software: The Anti-Conglomerate: https://www.eaglepointcap.com/blog/constellation-software-the-anti-conglomerate Introducing Robinhood Ventures Fund II: https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/introducing-rvii/ Quartz: Robinhood posted record quarterly revenue: https://qz.com/robinhood-record-revenue-prediction-markets-earnings-073026 Riot Games: https://www.riotgames.com/en AngelList's USVC Fund: https://usvc.com/ Baseten: https://www.baseten.co/ OpenEvidence: https://www.openevidence.com/ Hermes Agent: https://hermes-agent.org/ Granola: https://www.granola.ai/ Timestamps: 0:00 VC intros & Bending Spoons buys Airtable 9:19 Why growth is the only metric that matters 9:45 Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at https://www.vanta.com/twist 20:52 Agree.com - Stop chasing invoices and automate your entire contract-to-cash stack. Go to https://agree.com and tell them Jason sent you to get 50% off for life! 26:25 When should VCs sell in secondary markets? 30:55 Odoo - The all-in-one business platform. Get started for free at https://Odoo.com/twist 35:38 Robinhood's prediction markets are exploding 43:13 The USVC-Anduril secondary controversy 46:18 How VC firms use open source models 58:43 Telling the real founders from the grifters 1:02:38 Why Apple is suing OpenAI Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com Check out the TWIST500: https://www.twist500.com Subscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp Follow Lon: X: https://x.com/lons Follow Alex: X: https://x.com/alex LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm Follow Jason: X: https://twitter.com/Jason LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis Check out all our partner offers: https://partners.launch.co/ Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland Check out Jason's suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis Follow TWiST: Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartups TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartups Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com