Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF
Most people in aviation believe they understand the market.
- They look at comps
- They reference recent sales
- They trust the numbers
But what if those numbers aren’t as real as they seem?
In this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason pulls back the curtain on one of the most widely accepted—and least questioned—foundations of aircraft valuation: comparable sales data.
- Because in aviation, there is no centralized system
- No verified database
- No public record of what aircraft actually sell for.
And yet… entire markets move based on what those comps supposedly say.
This isn’t about bad actors, it’s about a system that was never designed for transparency—and the quiet risks that come with relying on it.
In This Episode, You’ll Discover
- Why there is no “MLS” for aircraft—and why there never will be
- How over 95% of aircraft transactions are never publicly disclosed
- Where comp data actually comes from (and why it’s often secondhand)
- The hidden pipeline of phone calls, conversations, and voluntary reporting
- Why most reported sales numbers are never verified against real contracts
- What aircraft purchase agreements reveal—and why no one sees them
- How deal structures (credits, concessions, trades) distort headline prices
- Why a reported price is often only a fraction of the real transaction
- The concentration problem: how a small number of voices shape the entire market
- Why the same data gets repeated until it feels like confirmation
- The “echo chamber effect” that creates false confidence in pricing
- How financial incentives can quietly influence reported values
- Why strong comps can support inventory—and weak comps can shift leverage
- The difference between reported numbers and real economic outcomes
- How lenders, buyers, and investors unknowingly absorb this risk
- Why sales comps are often treated as facts—but function as narratives
- The critical mistake of confusing isolated transactions with market structure
- What actually determines aircraft values: inventory, demand, maintenance cycles, and capital
- Why transaction velocity matters more than a handful of reported deals
- And the principle every serious operator needs to understand: what gets reported is not always what happened—and what happened doesn’t always get reported
The Bottom Line
Comps are not the market. They are fragments, snapshots and often incomplete reflections of much more complex transactions.
And when those fragments are treated as truth, the risk doesn’t disappear, it transfers. Because in aviation, pricing isn’t determined by a few reported numbers, it’s determined by the system behind them—supply, demand, liquidity, and timing. And if you’re not looking at that system, you’re not seeing the market clearly.
For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and aviation professionals worldwide, visit VREF.com.
Fly safe. Stay smart.
