In this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason responds to a new claim making the rounds in aviation: that legacy aircraft valuation methods are “broken math,” and that AI-powered valuation tools have supposedly discovered a better way to price aircraft.
In this episode, we cover:
• Why “free” aircraft valuations should always raise one immediate question
• Why asking prices are not the same thing as market value
• How scraped listings can create the illusion of precision without proving reality
• Why a model built on asking prices may be measuring seller hope, not buyer behavior
• Why the difference between listed price and escrowed closing price is not a technicality
• How marketing claims about “broken math” can sound impressive while missing the actual valuation problem
• Why fitting a curve to thousands of listings does not mean you have discovered the market
• Why the only honest test of a valuation model is whether it can predict real closed sale prices
• How one model can declare itself the truth, then score everyone else against itself
• Why curve fitting can look sophisticated while still being disconnected from transaction reality
• Why no competent appraiser blindly applies flat dollars per hour from overhaul to runout
• Why fresh overhaul premiums, runout discounts, and mid-time plateaus have been priced by professionals for decades
• Why engine time is only one input inside a much larger valuation methodology
• How logbook quality, damage history, corrosion, engine programs, maintenance pedigree, and overhaul quality affect value
• Why a scraped listing will never tell the whole story
• Why “discovering” that aircraft values are non-linear is not a breakthrough to anyone who actually appraises aircraft
• How free valuation tools may use flattering numbers to drive referrals
• Why a valuation that makes an owner feel good may not be defensible
• Why owners should ask who benefits from the number they receive
• Why referral-based incentives can quietly distort valuation outcomes
• What three questions every owner, buyer, lender, or advisor should ask about any valuation
• What data is underneath the number?
• Who signs it?
• What does the publisher earn from your valuation?
• Why subscription-based valuation data and referral-driven valuation models are not the same incentive structure
• Why lenders, insurers, estates, partnerships, and courts require numbers that survive scrutiny
• Why aircraft values need to be defensible, not just convenient
• Why innovation in valuation is welcome, but only if it starts by measuring the right thing
The bottom line:
Free aircraft valuations are not always free.
Sometimes the cost is hidden in the incentive.
If the number is built on asking prices, referrals, scraped data, and flattering assumptions, it may feel good in the moment.
But aviation does not reward feelings.
It rewards defensible facts.
And when real money, collateral, insurance, taxes, litigation, or ownership decisions are on the line, the question is not whether the number makes you happy.
The question is whether it holds up.
For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, attorneys, operators, and aviation professionals worldwide, visit VREF.com.
Fly safe. Stay smart.
