Plan B's Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model Will Die in 2026

Plan B's Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model Will Die in 2026

Author: Francis Tapon August 11, 2025 Duration: 14:34
Watch Video on YouTube

Five years ago, I predicted Plan B's Bitcoin stock-to-flow model (S2F) would fail in this decade because it had 8 flaws.


During Bitcoin's spectacular 2022 crash, many analysts declared the S2F models dead.


I surprised everyone when I (one of Plan B's most prominent critics) said, "It's not dead yet."


The reason Plan B's stock-to-flow Bitcoin models are not dead is not because they're correct, but because they have a wide range of acceptable values that will allow them to survive until the next halving.


In 2025, the S2F average price has risen to a staggering $500,000, while Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $120,000 as of August 11, 2025, when I released this video.


Therefore, even though BTC has increased by over $100,000 from its $15,000 price in November 2022, and should be a cause for massive celebration for BTC fans, Plan B is lamenting the relatively low price appreciation of this "strange, flat bull market."


In my annual S2F update, I'll examine how the S2F model is doing and explain why it will begin its slow and painful death at the end of this year.


 


Connect

Send me an anonymous voicemail at SpeakPipe.com/FTapon


You can post comments, ask questions, and sign up for my newsletter at https://wanderlearn.com.



If you like this podcast, subscribe and share! 


On social media, my username is always FTapon. Connect with me on:



 


Sponsors

1. My Patrons sponsored this show! Claim your monthly reward by becoming a patron for as little as $2/month at https://Patreon.com/FTapon


2. For the best travel credit card, get one of the Chase Sapphire cards and get 75-100k bonus miles!


3. Get $5 when you sign up for Roamless, my favorite global eSIM! Use code LR32K


4. Get 25% off when you sign up for Trusted Housesitters, a site that helps you find sitters or homes to sit in.


5. Start your podcast with my company, Podbean, and get one month free!


6. In the United States, I recommend trading cryptocurrency with Kraken


7. Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!


8. For backpacking gear, buy from Gossamer Gear.



Get full access to Francis Tapon at ftapon.substack.com/subscribe

There's a certain kind of travel that changes you, not just your location. It’s the slow, immersive kind where the journey itself becomes the teacher. In WanderLearn: Travel to Transform Your Mind & Life, Francis Tapon acts as your guide into this world, exploring how leaving familiar ground can fundamentally reshape your perspective. This isn't about quick tips or itineraries; it's about the deeper conversations that happen at the crossroads of culture, society, and personal growth. Each episode delves into how we engage with places and people, often weaving in discussions about the role of modern technology in both enabling and complicating these profound experiences. You'll hear stories and insights that challenge the conventional tourist mindset, pushing toward a more thoughtful, engaged way of moving through the world. Francis draws from a wealth of experience to discuss concepts like vagabonding and deep travel, making the case that the greatest souvenirs aren't trinkets, but transformed thoughts. Tuning into this podcast feels like sitting down with a well-traveled friend who understands that the real destination is often a shift within yourself. It’s for anyone who believes that travel, at its best, is a powerful catalyst for learning and living differently.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

WanderLearn: Travel to Transform Your Mind & Life
Podcast Episodes
Why You Should Revisit Countries You Disliked [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 18:00
Radio Vagabond Host Palle Bo shares the meaning of his name in various languages. We share what we've been doing since we last met in Thailand.Lastly, Palle shares why it's worth revisiting countries that gave you a nega…
8 Years of Misadventures in Africa | Extraordinary Travel Festival [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 57:01
In 2022, I delivered this speech at the inaugural Extraordinary Travel Festival in Yerevan, Armenia.Watch the Video to See the Slides!I was the only in-person speaker invited to speak again at the 2nd conference. Why?Bec…
Meeting Elephants in Chiang Mai, Thailand [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 4:08
Watch the 3-minute video of what it's like to feed and kiss elephants in Chiang Mai, Thailand. In mid-November 2024, hear me speak at the Extraordinary Travel Festival in Bangkok, Thailand!TIMELINE00:00 Intro00:23 Feedin…
Extraordinary Travel Festival Host Ric Gazarian #Thailand & #ETF2 [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 13:39
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHW-9M4Vrc4Ric and I talked in Thailand about Thai hospitality, international marriages, and the November 2024 Extraordinary Travel Festival!In mid-November 2024, hear me speak at the Extr…
How & Why Did Thailand Largely Avoid Getting Colonized? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 2:25
Every country has been colonized or occupied, including Thailand. However, Thailand is one of the handful of countries that did not get formally colonized for an extended period. Why?How?I answer that question in this 2-…
Are the Smiles in Thailand Fake? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 2:08
In mid-November 2024, hear me speak at the Extraordinary Travel Festival in Bangkok, Thailand!Watch the video of this episode!For good reason, Thailand is called the Land of the Smiles: the Thais smile easily and often!I…
Why Go To Thailand [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 14:04
If there was ever a podcast where you're better off seeing the video, this is it! It features lots of footage that I shot the first time I visited.In mid-November 2024, hear me speak at the Extraordinary Travel Festival…