Why 2026 Is Aviation's Most Volatile Year Since COVID

Why 2026 Is Aviation's Most Volatile Year Since COVID

Author: Skift July 23, 2026 Duration: 1:01:40
The airline industry is navigating its most unpredictable period since the pandemic, with fuel prices, geopolitical tensions, premium travel demand, and aircraft shortages reshaping the competitive landscape. Gordon Smith and Jay Shabat break down the data behind the headlines, explaining why airlines remain profitable despite rising costs and unprecedented volatility. They also explore the winners and losers across global aviation, from the Middle East's disrupted hub networks and Europe's consolidation wave to the changing competitive dynamics in the U.S. Plus, they preview what to watch as airlines report Q2 earnings and why premium cabins continue to drive the industry's strongest financial results. Follow the Hosts:  Gordon Smith – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Jay Shabat – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Meghna Maharishi - ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Airline Weekly LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/airline-weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/Airline_Weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/airlineweekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/skiftnews/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ WhatsApp: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAL375LikgIXmNPYQ0L/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@SkiftNews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss an update from the airline and travel industries. 00:00 Welcome to Skift Playbooks 02:35 Why Oil Sets the Tone 06:28 Airline Profits in Context 10:39 Gulf Disruption and Recovery 12:00 Demand Trends and Rerouting 17:03 Premium Boom Everywhere 19:31 Supply Crunch and Delays 25:37 Unit Costs Beyond Fuel 26:57 Skift Aviation Forum Plug 30:00 Back to Europe Volatility 30:57 Europe Consolidation Outlook 31:36 TAP Sale and EasyJet Bids 33:43 Why IAG Outperforms 34:09 Tourism Boom and Loyalty 37:27 US Market After Spirit 40:29 Premium Gap Delta vs Spirit 44:07 US Consolidation and American Chase 48:05 Q2 Earnings Season Themes 53:04 Global Airlines Scoreboard 57:22 Wrap Up and Subscribe

Step inside the Airline Weekly Lounge, a podcast from Skift where the editors behind the industry publication gather for a deeper, more conversational look at the world of commercial flight. This isn't just a recap of headlines; it's a focused exploration of the complex forces shaping how airlines operate, compete, and ultimately survive. Each episode digs into the week's most intriguing developments, from fleet strategies and route networks to labor dynamics and the evolving culture of travel, always with a keen eye on the bottom line. The central, driving question remains: how do carriers actually turn a profit in this famously volatile business? You'll hear analysis that connects financial results to real-world operations, discussing everything from premium cabin innovations and loyalty program economics to airport politics and environmental pressures. The tone is informed and accessible, peeling back the layers on both major global network carriers and regional players. For anyone curious about the business realities behind their boarding pass, this podcast offers a regular dose of context and clarity, revealing the intricate balance of economics, service, and strategy that keeps the industry aloft. Join the editors in the lounge for a perspective that goes beyond the news cycle.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

Airline Weekly Lounge
Podcast Episodes
What American, Southwest and United Told Investors [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:30
Gordon is joined by Jay and Meghna to unpack the recent Morgan Stanley Laguna conference, where executives from American, Southwest and United set out where they think the market is heading. Follow the Hosts: Gordon Smit…
Airlines Post Record Revenues But Costs Catch Up [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 41:56
Gordon and Jay open with why record revenues still aren't covering a sharp rise in costs, then turn to what JetBlue's latest outlook tells the rest of the industry. Follow the Hosts: Gordon Smith – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠…
The Air Canada Anko Inherits [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 38:16
In part one, Gordon and Jay weigh the opportunities in front of Air Canada against the challenges that come with them. In part two, the conversation turns to China, and why the country's Big Three carriers had such a rou…
Why US Airlines Are Betting Big on Europe in 2027 [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 32:07
In part one, Jay and Meghna discuss the latest transatlantic expansion announcements from United and American Airlines and what they reveal about how US carriers are rethinking their European strategies. In part two, the…
Qatar Airways: Skift Global Forum Preview [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 32:33
In part one, Gordon and Jay discuss some of the biggest talking points at Qatar Airways, as the airline's CEO, Hamad Ali Al-Khater, prepares to join the Skift Global Forum in New York next month. In part two, the convers…
Skift Global Forum 2026: Aviation Preview [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 39:57
In this week's show, Gordon and Jay discuss two industry giants that are due to speak at the Skift Global Forum 2026 in New York between September 22-24. The conversation kicks off with Air Canada before turning to Virgi…
Turkish Airlines' Turbulent Quarter [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 29:41
In part one, Gordon and Jay discuss a mixed set of Q2 results for Turkish Airlines. In part two, the conversation turns to Allegiant Air, with the U.S. carrier now taking Sun Country under its wing. Follow the Hosts: Gor…
Swiss Shines But Lufthansa Lags [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 33:58
Swiss out-earned the entire Lufthansa Group network division it belongs to last quarter, while the core Lufthansa brand slid back into an operating loss. Gordon and Jay work through how a fuel bill undid a solid demand q…
Airshow Highs and Earnings Season Realities [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 42:33
In part one, Gordon and Jay discuss the highlights from last week's Farnborough International Airshow, reviewing the big deals and longer term impact of the event. In part two, the conversation turns to earnings season,…
How Many Planes Does the World Need? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 26:21
Ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, for this special episode Gordon Smith and Meghna Maharishi are joined by Darren Hulst, Boeing's VP of Commercial Marketing. The conversation centers on the planemaker's latest Commercial…